The last rites of the 2014 Turf season are being muttered by National Hunt Racing enthusiasts but before they put the last nail in the coffin, the November handicap at Doncaster becomes the focus of attention for Flat racing fans.

Snow Princess (1995) was the last favourite to win the race at odds of 5/1 so if history repeats itself, the horse that attracts the most attention in the market may not live up to punter expectations.

Using Proform, we analysed the last seventeen renewals of the November Handicap to find that the favourite has placed only once in the last ten renewals.

And as a testament to its competitiveness, the last five winners of the November Handicap were priced at 8/1, 20/1, 8/1, 14/1 and 17/2 so punters who were fortunate enough to find the winner were suitably compensated for their efforts.

Other key trends identifed in the race

 

Kept on ice for the big one

Nine winners had no runs in the month prior to the race. Six winners only had one run suggesting victors of the November Handicap may have been campaigned especially with this race in mind.

 

Qualifiers: First Mohican, Mount Logan, Sir Walter Scott, Odeon, Esteaming, Treasure The Ridge, Farquhar, Aramist, Old Town Boy, One Pekan, Kings Bayonet

 

Younger horses turn the table on the seniors.

Now we are toward the back end of the turf season, younger horses have fully matured and are able to compete against their elders on their own merits with minimal aid or assistance from the handicapper.

Historically, November handicap winners were aged 3 (six), 4 (six), 5 (three) and 6 (two)

 

Qualifiers: Ennistown, Rhombus, Dashing Star, Mount Logan, Sir Walter Scott, Odeon, Manhattan Swing, Esteaming, Plutocracy, Farquhar, Latenightrequest, Aramist, Old Town Boy, One Pekan

 

Ready to rumble

In the last seventeen renewals, twelve winners finished in the first three on their preceding start and of these eleven were also ranked in the first four staring prices last time out.

 

(Finished in the first 3 LTO qualifiers)

Ardlui, Eurystheus, Headline News, Dark Ruler, Dashing Star, Manhattan Swing, One Pekan, Aramist, Latenightrequest, Mount Logan, Open Eagle, Farquhar, Old Town Boy

(Finished in the first 3 AND ranked in the first 4 of the betting LTO qualifiers)

Eurystheus, Headline News, Dark Ruler, Dashing Star, Manhattan Swing, One Pekan, Aramist, Mount Logan, Open Eagle, Old Town Boy

 

Courses for November Handicap horses

Horses that ran at either Newmarket or Doncaster in their previous race have won a total of nine races from seventeen renewals. Next on the list are Ascot and Newbury with two wins each for horses who ran at these venues prior to the race.

 

(Ran at Newmarket or at Doncaster LTO qualifiers)

Rhombus, Dashing Star, Mount Logan, Treasure The Ridge, Communicator, Farquhar, Ardlui, Latenightrequest, Headline News, Eurystheus

 

Draw Bias and Pace Prediction.

With twenty-three horses declared, deciphering how the race will unfold with be challenging.

To help you in this task, below is our Draw Bias and Pace Prediction Map for each runner in the race.