By Andrew Mount

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Saturday, April 13th

4.00 – Randox Grand National Handicap Chase

This race is a very different beast since the fences were made easier ahead of the 2015 renewal and they tend to go hard up front, setting the race up for a closer. The best way to predict who is likely to be given a patient ride is to use the Proform pace ratings. The Proform software uses three pace abbreviations based on last-time out comments…

L = led (4pts)

P = prominent (2pts)

H = held up (0pts)

The last three runs for each horse are added together to give the pace rating and, in the eight renewals of the Grand National since the fences were modified, those with a rating of six or higher have failed to register a single win from 113 runners (the expected number of winners, based on their odds was 2.96).

To study recent Grand National trends using the Proform software we use the system builder, first setting out date parameters…

 

Next, we select Aintree only in the ‘course’ tab…

 

…then type ‘Grand National’ in the ‘race’ tab…

…running the query now gives us the following results…

…next, we click the ‘presentation (ratings)’ tab and select ‘By Pace Ratings Value’ to present the results by the Proform pace rating…

…giving the following results…

I now want to concentrate on the runners with a pace rating of between 0 and 4, so I enter ‘<=4’ in the pace value box in the ‘Ratings’ tab…

Splitting the qualifiers by age gives some interesting results, with those aged ten or more failing to register a win from 86 runners…

Combining a pace rating of 0-4 with the nine-year-old or younger angle gives the following results…

Backing the qualifiers blind would have seen us hit the winner in every year since the fence modifications and make a profit of £47.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. We can use the above as a base system and play around with other angles. For example, of the 116 qualifiers, those who failed to complete the course last time were 0-18, so we could exclude those. Those who prepped in a chase at Cheltenham were five from 43 for a profit of £59.00. The standout qualifier at this stage is seven-year-old MEETINGOFTHEWATERS, a hold-up horses who was third in the Ultima Handicap Chase at last month's Cheltenham festival.

 

 

1.20 – William Hill Handicap Hurdle

Saturday’s Aintree card gets underway with a 3m handicap hurdle, which can also be narrowed down using the Proform software. Horses who ran well and exceeded market expectations in their prep race have a good record – I defined this as a top four finish when 6^th or worse in the betting…

…in the 13 renewals since 2010 (COVID intervened in 2020) this angle found the winner on nine occasions (from just 48 bets) for a profit of £50.50 to a £1 level stake at SP…

Those qualifiers who had been rested for more than 21 days did even better…

MONMIRAL and KYNTARA, the first two home in the Pertemps Final at 25-1 and 16-1 respectively, both qualify this year, as does Ascot winner HONOR GREY.

 

 

Friday

2.20 – William Hill Handicap Hurdle

Another race at the Aintree festival where horses ridden patiently might be favoured is the 2m4f handicap hurdle run on Friday.  We can again use the Proform pace rating to our advantage, eliminating those with a rating of 6 or higher. Since 2009, they have failed to register a win from 91 qualifiers…

We’d have lost money at SP (-£7.00) by backing all those with a pace rating of 4 or lower, but would have made a profit of £37.79 at Betfair SP (after 2% commission)…

Splitting these 207 runners by trainer nationality makes interesting reading, with the Irish-trained runners over-achieving…

BLACK BAMBOO, sixth under a patient ride in the Coral Cup, will be very interesting if lining up here instead of in the 3m handicap hurdle on Saturday. The Gordon Elliott-trained TED HASTINGS, runner-up over course and distance on Boxing Day, is another one for the shortlist.

 

 

 

Thursday

1.45 – Manifesto Novices’ Chase

This Grade 1 contest has not been a happy hunting ground for Paul Nicholls, with his 15 runners this century failing to notch a single win…

He has GINNY’s DESTINY this year, the 7-2 second favourite at the time of writing.

 

4.40 – Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase

The market for this 2m handicap chase is often dominated by horses who ran well in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham festival but those who ran in that contest have a poor recent record, scoring just once from 63 runners since 2010…

In the past ten years (nine renewals) it has paid to concentrate on lowly weighted runners (carrying 10-10 or less) who ran in a lower grade (Class 2 or 3 company) last time out…

Spring horse BLACK GERRY, runner-up in a Class 2 handicap chase at Plumpton last time, is set to carry 10-06 and could be the answer to this year’s renewal.

 

 

by Andrew Mount

Racing pundit/journalists with daily tipping/analysis columns for GG.co.uk, SportsLens.com and Tote.co.uk. I also write a weekly column for Racing & Football Outlook.

Past lives include racecourse bookmaker, author of the Trend Horses books for Raceform, full-time pro punter and racehorse owner.