5 things you didn't know about the Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket

October 11th, 2013


Distance of Last Race

11 of the last 16 winners of the Cesarewitch ran at around 2 miles last time out.  This was from 182 runners and produced a profit of £71.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. They have represented extreme value over the years and are winning 87% more races than expected. This year we have the following qualifiers who ran at around 2m last time out :- Recession Proof, Capellanus, Thecornishcockney, Sohar, Waterclock, Taglietelle, Earth Amber.    

Poor Value Last Time Out Winners

Last time out winners have won only 4 of the last 16 renewals but plenty have tried, in fact 107 over the past 16 years were last time out winners.  However they are over bet and are currently running at 29% below expectations. Last time out winners in this years field are :- Domination, Swinging Hawk, Thecornishcockney, Platinum, Tiger Cliff, Oriental Fox.  


Two trainers with the best record in the race with runners this year are Nicky Henderson and Mark Johnston. Nicky Henderson has won 2 of the last 16 renewals from just 9 runners with 1 other placing. This year he runs :- Lieutenant Miller. Earth Amber.   Mark Johnston has also won 2 from 28 runners with a further 2 making the frame. This year he saddles :- Broxbourne, Scatter Dice, Oriental Fox.  


There have been 3 big priced winners in the last 16 years at 25/1, 50/1 and 66/1 (last year), however the best price range is 10/1 to 16/1.  The price ranges break down like this :- Lower than 10/1 :    3 winners from 43 runners. 40% lower than expectations. 10/1 to 16/1 :            10 winners from 112 runners. 69% above expectations. Greater than 16/1 :   3 winners from 368 runners. 43% below expectations. * Horses running today in the 10/1 to 16/1 price range at the time of writing are :- Tiger Cliff, Lieutenant Miller, Oriental Fox, Clowance Estate, Big Easy, Brockwell, Earth Amber, Platinum. * NOTE: Prices can change and you should watch the markets to get the correct horses in the 10/1 to 16/1 range.  

British Bred's Poor Record

Horse bred in the GB have a very poor record over the last 16 renewals winning only 2 of them from a pool of 238 runners. Based on the probability of the prices they were sent off just over 7 winners should have come from this pool of GB breds. This represents a below expectations percentage figure of -72%   In contrast if we take the rest of the breeding pool they have won the other 14 renewals when they should have only won 9. This is 56% better than expected with 14 winners from 285 runners and a just over break even profit to SP backing all of them. The country of breeding records are :-  

Bred Wins Runs BTEX
IRE 9 196 59%
FR 2 27 50%
USA 2 46 37%
GER 1 12 203%
Rest of the world 0 4 0%
TOTALS 14 285 56%

  KEY: BTEXT = Better than expected percentage The non GB bred horses running today are :- Nanton, Los Nadis, Recession Proof, Swinging Hawk, Capellanus, Broxbourne, Eagle Rock, Platinum, Waterclock, Big Easy, Scatter Dice, Clowance Estate, Tiger Cliff, Oriental Fox, Smoky Hill.  


From the 5 trends above we get the following qualifiers in three or more trends :- Oriental Fox 4 Earth Amber 3 Platinum 3 Tiger Cliff 3 All four of these are in the correct price range at the time of writing, however Platinum, Tiger Cliff and Oriental Fox are in the negative camp in the last time out winners stat. This would now give us Oriental Fox 3 Earth Amber 3 Platinum 2 Tiger Cliff 2 I would be happy to the have the top 2 running for us, so :-

Oriental Fox and Earth Amber.