The Windsor Beneath My Wings – Front Runners on the West London ‘Figure of 8’June 3rd, 2019
The Windsor Beneath My Wings – Front Runners on the West London ‘Figure of 8’
There are a number of fixtures that are a standing dish every week through the Flat racing calendar. In this article we are going to look at Windsor, usually your Monday evening fare and what angle you can look for on a regular basis.
I recall a few years back before Richard Hughes traded the saddle for the training licence that he said something along the lines of “if you get out front at Windsor in the races around the bends and dictate the pace you can be hard to pass”. So looking at the data it will not surprise you that such an intelligent man really knows his stuff. No wonder he managed a seven timer here back in 2012 and rode over 200 winners at the track in his circa 25 year career.
First of all looking at all handicap events run at the track (non-hcap omitted to exclude novice races where pace angle very hard to determine) we see that those who led won 20.6% of the time, compare this with a general 17-18% conversion from front runners at all tracks.
[Filter: Course Windsor, Race Tab- Hcaps only, present by Pace Abbrev]
Of course we do not know who led until the race is away so we use Pace Ratings to infer potential racing position, those that are usually held up (PR 0) have a record far below expected and the record improves for those who race to the fore. High pace rated, 8+, provided 20% of the winners from about 15% of the total runners so before any filtering we can see we are onto something.
[Filter: Course Windsor Only, Race Tab – Hcap Only, Present by Pace Rating Value]
Cycling back to Richard Hughes comment about races around the bend, that means 1m and further as 5f and 6f take place down the spine of the course, we see that those who are a clear top pace ranked fare well at 1m and 1m2f contests but curiously not so much the mile and a half trip.
[Filters: Course Windsor only, Race Tab – Hcap Only, Ratings Tab – Pace Ratings 1, Pace Rating Value >=8 Clear By 1, Present By Distance]
Narrowing the sample to just 1m and 1m2f races then. You can add some of the various Proform filters to help avoid those costly losers. Taking only those in reasonable form in recent times going by their Speed Rating ranking, you can improve your bottom line.
[Filters: Course Windsor only, Race Tab – Hcap Only, Distance >1600 and <2300, Ratings Tab – Pace Ratings 1, Pace Rating Value >=8 Clear By 1, Present by MR Last 3 Runs Static Rating Rank]
All in all using the pace ratings you have a nice little system for potential front runners. 2018 a small loss the only blot on the decade of profitable years on the banks of the Thames.
[Filters: Course Windsor only, Race Tab – Hcap Only, Distance >1600 and <2300, Ratings Tab – Pace Ratings 1, Pace Rating Value >=8 Clear By 1, MR Last 3 Runs Rating Rank <7]
If front runners are successful then it must mean somebody is losing out, we saw briefly earlier that those with a Pace Rating of 0 come in well below expected. It is a very strong negative at 5f but Windsor is generally a place you need to be handy the evidence suggests
Those held up winning just 8.4% of the time and 13 winners less than expected by the betting market. Furthermore a low place rate and PRB^2 backs up the reliability of opposing them.
There are a number of courses that famously the front is the place to be, to my mind Windsor was not one on the public consciousness to the same degree as others. I hope this information will help your improve you Mondays at the west london track.
One Qualifier tonight!