Key Trends - York Dante Festival: Day 1May 10th, 2016
The DUKE OF YORK and the MUSIDORA STAKES are the feature events on the opening day of the Dante Festival at York, and using the Proform system builder to crunch the numbers, we analysed the winners of each race since 1997 to uncover the following trends
Duke Of York Stakes
In the Duke of York Stakes horses aged 5 or older have a much better record than 3 and 4 year olds.
5yo+ horses have won 14 of the last 19 from a population of 157 runners.
This result is 35% above expectations and a £57.33 profit at SP for the £1 stake on each one if you backed each one.
On the flip side 3 and 4yo's have won the remaining 5 renewals from 104 runners, 42% worse than expected.
As this is a competitive sprint over 6 furlongs, look for horses that like to run up with pace when the gates open as opposed to the trail blazers.
Of the three styles, prominent running horses perform 38% better than expected and thus far have returned a £23.33 profit at SP to a £1 stake.
Although this is a Group 2 race, don’t overlook horses who are stepping in Class from a listed race last time out.
Horses of this type have won 8 of 19 renewals and perform 36% above normal and yield a profit at SP of £18.00 to a £1 stake.
12 of the last 19 winners of the Musidora Stakes were British Bred.
This is from a population of 54 runners and represents a 22.22% strike rate which is 20% better than expected in terms of winners.
In contrast Irish Bred horses have won just 4 of the last 19 renewals from a pool of 51 runners and 45% worse than expected.
Horses saddled by one of the trainers in the table below have collectively won 14 of the last 19 Musidora stakes.