Cheltenham Festival 2013 – Day 3 Preview and SelectionsMarch 13th, 2013
Only 19 places available
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Jewson Novices' Chase
Very little to go on in this race so no positive or negatives. Previous Festival form is working out well and Cheltenham form, 1st or 2nd last time out and the front of the market helps too. TREND FITTERS: No real trend fitters to speak of but we like Captain Conan for the win bet along with Third Intention at a big price e/way from the in form Tizzard team. He is a horse that has run well at past festivals and holds a record at Cheltenham of 1 win and 3 places from 7 runs at the course. Captain Conan (Win) Third Intention (E/Way)
- Horses with an SP of 10/1 or over have won 12 of the last 15 renewals, which shows how competitive this Listed Handicap is. This is 35% higher than expectations.
- Horses 8 or older have won 9 from 15. This is 59% better than expected.
- Last time out winners are 60% higher than the norm with 7 of the last 15 winners from just 60 runners in the 15 year period.
- Interestingly horses who were beaten last time out and by 10 lengths or more account for another 7 of the 15 winners, which is 32% higher than expected.
- 6 winners had previously run at a past Cheltenham Festival.
- Horses aged 7 or younger have won 6 of the 15 renewals but that is from 206 runners, which is 39% worse than expected.
- Horses that started less than 10/1 have accounted for 54 runners and produced 3 winners. That's 54% lower than expectations.
TREND FITTERS: We have six horses who qualify on four of the trends, they are :- American Spin, Berties Dream, Catch Me, Fair Along, Junior and American Trilogy. Fair Along, Catch Me and Junior fit another negative trend, which is against horses at the top of the handicap, so we are left with three. American Spin, Berties Dream and American Trilogy are all back on handy marks so we will go with all three e/way. We are particularly keen on American Triolgy who will love the drying ground. American Spin (E/Way) Berties Dream (E/Way) American Trilogy (E/Way)
The runners from last years race have only won 5 races between them from 37 runs, which is a little lower than the norm. POSTIVES:
- 6 of the 8 winners contested a non handicap last time out.
- 6 of the 8 ran at either Cheltenham, Kempton or Ascot last time out.
- All 8 winners ran up with the pace when winning the Ryanair.
- 6 of the 8 winners finished in the 1st three last time out.
- 7 of the 8 winners were in the first 3 in the betting and at 6/1 or lower.
- 37 runners have been held up in the Ryanair, ALL have lost.
TREND FITTERS: Two horses qualify on all counts Cue Card and Champion Court. Of the two we really like Cue Card's profile. Cue Card (Win) Champion Court (Saver)
It's a real shame we have no Big Buck's in this seasons renewal but the upside is a more completive race to get our teeth into. POSTIVES:
- All of the last 15 winners wore no headgear and also didn't wear headgear on their prep run either.
- 13 of the 15 won last time out, which is 24% better than expected.
- 9 winners were held up from 96 runners, which is 14% better than expected and the other 6 winners ran prominently.
- Running at Cheltenham, Newbury or Kempton last time out has produced 10 of the last 15 winners.
- French Bred's have won 7 of the 15 renewals, Big Buck's accounts for four of those, however there have also been 11 placed French bred's, so overall 18 won or placed from 52 runners.
- Irish Bred horses are 2 from 84, which is 56% worse than expected.
TREND FITTERS: There is one clear qualifier, Reve De Sivola who qualifies on all trends. Of the rest Wonderful Charm comes very close and Paul Nicholls choose this route over the Pertempts. Reve De Sivola (Win) Wonderful Charm (E/Way)
Byrne Group Plate
Plenty of statistics to get our teeth into in this race. I particularly like the negative for horses who ran in a Class 1 race last time out. POSTIVES:
- 12 of the last 15 winner had a SP of 10/1 or higher, which is 58% better than expected.
- Racing just below top class last time out, in a Class 2 or 3 race is a solid trend with 11 of the 15 winners doing so, which is 52% better than the expected 7 winners.
- French Breds do well with 7 wins, 34% better than expected and British Breds have 6 wins, which is also 34% above expectations.
- 13 of the last 15 winners had a recent run in the last 42 days.
- 13 winners had also finished in the first 5 last time out.
- Horse that ran in a Class 1 race last time out have a terrible record winning just 2 of the last 15 renewals from 118 runners, that's 66% below expectations.
- Irish Breds are under performing by 60% winning only 2 from 110 runners in the last 15 renewals.
- The front of the market (under 10/1) is also poor with just 3 from 59 when the expected winners would be 7, which is 59% below expectations.
- Horses coming off a break of more than 42 days have won just 2 of the 15 plates, from 105 runners, that's 58% lower than expectations.
TREND FITTERS: Four horses top all five trends and I would not put you off any of them. We have backed them ALL with varying stakes geared more towards the first two named below. Kapga De Cerisy (Win) Divers (Win) Domtaline (Win) Tartak (Win)
Fluke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
Another race with plenty of valid statistics, and a race that has worked out ok with 8 subsequent winners coming out of last years race. POSTIVES:
- Horses aged 9 or older have won 10 of the last 15 renewals, which is 56% better than expected.
- All 15 winners ran in a handicap last time out, which is 35% better than expected.
- The front 3 in the betting have won 7 of the last 15.
- 7 winners from 15 finished 1st or 2nd last time out.
- 14 of the last 15 ran in a race of 3 miles or over last time out, which is 26% more than the norm.
- Held up runners are 7 from 187, 21% worse than expected.
- Horses aged 8 or younger have won 5 from 161 runners in the last 15 renewals, which is 41% lower than expectations.
TREND FITTERS: Three horses qualify on 4 of the 5 trends, Alfie Sherrin, No Secrets and Richard's Sundance. No Secrets barely missed out on all 5 with just being outside the top 3 in the betting. Alfie Sherrin (Win) No Secrets (Win) Richard's Sundance (E/Way)
Cross Country Chase
Only 8 renewals of this race so statistically valid trends are thin on the ground. POSTIVES:
- All of the last 8 winners did NOT wear any headgear, which is 23% higher than expectations
- 7 of the 8 winners started at 10/1 or under.
- 7 of the 8 winners were in the first three in the betting, which is a massive 63% better than expected.
- Irish Bred horses have won 6 of the 8 renewals.
- Anything over 10/1 is a negative, with 1 winner from 90 runners although the sample size is still a little small.
TREND FITTERS: The top 3 in the betting all fit the trends above. However Arabella Boy prefers Punchestown to Cheltenham. We like the experienced Uncle Junior and the relatively young gun Outlaw Pete. Uncle Junior (Win) Outlaw Pete (Win)