Three courses serve up Cleeve Hill Hurdle success

January 23th, 2015

The Cleeve Hurdle is a Grade 2 National Hunt hurdle race in Great Britain which is open to horses aged five years or older. It is run on the New Course at Cheltenham over a distance of about 3 miles.

With the wealth of information at our disposal, we analysed our horse race statistics since 1997 using our horse race software to profile each winner and reveal the following key trends

 

Age

Winners down the years have been aged 5 (three), 6 (three), 7(two), 8 (three), 9 (six).

9yo’s perform 68% above normal and yield a profit of £12.03 to a £1 stake at Betfair starting prices. A return on investment of 48.12%.

The 2013 winner of the Cleeve Hill, Reve de Sivola makes a bold bid to double up although he will need to defy stats which indicate only one winner has won this race aged 10 or more. (From a population of 24 horses).

Qualifiers: Olofi

 

The Market View

Last year’s renewal threw up a Placepot busting 66/1 winner in Knockara Beau and this result halted the trend of single figure priced Cleeve Hill winners in 2011, 2012 and 2013.

Overall, horses ranked in the first two in the betting are 12 from 18 renewals.

However, if we focus on profitability, horses ranked in the first three in the market in their race prior to the Cleeve Hill have won 15 of the last 18 winners; a performance 13% higher than normal.

Overall this stat yields a profit of £32.42 and return on investment of 42.66% to a £1 stake at Betfair Starting Prices.

Qualifiers: Saphir Du Rheu

 

Race Distance in Recent Race

Over the years, the Cleeve Hill race distance has chopped and changed but its distance was extended to the present length in 2005.

So, in the last 10 renewals, horses that contested over 3miles+ in their race prior to the Cleeve Hill have won on 7 occasions, although profitability is skewed by one big priced winner listed below.

Qualifiers: all contestants

 

World Hurdle Trial?

The race is considered to be the leading trial for the World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March.

Since 2005, only Inglis Drever (2008) and Big Buck’s (2009 and 2012) have gone onto to win the World Hurdle in the same year as winning the Cleeve Hurdle

Using the tools in our horse racing software, we can determine how a raced worked out based on the subsequent runs of the runners in the race.

If we consider the form of last year’s race (overall 23% below normal) and with an eye on Cheltenham races in March, this race may have lost its shine as a key trial to the World Hurdle.

 

Pace Previous Race

Since 1997, horses that ran prominently in their race prior to the Cleeve Hill have won on 10 occasions from a population of 67 horses and perform 32% above normal expectation. 

Qualifiers: Un Temps Pour Tout

To help you visualise how the race could be run, you can identify horses with different running styles easily using our pace maps which can be found in our Proform racecards in addition to our horse ratings.

 

Courses for Cleeve Hill Hurdle Horses

As you are see from the table above from our software, horses that ran at Cheltenham last time out won on 7 occasions and combined with horses that ran at Ascot and Haydock last time out account for 14 of the last 18 winners.

Qualifiers: Olofi , Reve de Sivola, Cole Harden