15:50 Newmarket - The Cambridgeshire

TOP 3 IN THE BETTING

Not surprisingly in a race which is the focus of a lot of attention, the top 3 in the betting have won half of the last 16 renewals from just 55 runners.  You could have backed them all and made an £11 profit at SP to a £1 stake. They are over-performing to the tune of 45% at present so there is value to be had in the first 3 in the betting. If you also couple this with only looking at the front 3 in the betting that are under 10/1 then the profit rises to £14 and is better than expectations by 54% You will need to look up the front 3 in the market in on the day of racing but there are currently 5 horses vying for the three spots, they are :- Top Notch Tonto, Ascription, Graphic, Queensbury Rules and Educate.  

NUMBER OF RUNS PROFILE

8 of the last 16 winners had run no more than 7 times in the last year and had zero runs in the last month.  This is 53% better than expected. This years qualifiers are :- Sam Sharp, King's Warrior, Belgian Bill, Captain Bertie, Fury, Bronze Angel. Arsaadi. Code Of Honor, Queensberry Rules.  

LAST TIME OUT FINISHING POSITION

Horses who finished in the first 4 last time out have won 12 of the last 16 renewals but that doesn't tell the whole story. 5 of them had finished 1st or 2nd last time out but they represent no value, performing 33% below expectations. The remaining 7 had finished 3rd or 4th on their last start and these are under-bet so are over-performing by 85%. This years runners who finished 3rd or 4th on their last start are :- Tres Coronas, The Rectifier, Jack's Revenge, Captain Bertie, Robert The Painter, Arsaadi, Strictly Silver, King George River, Code Of Honor, Seek Again.    

COURSE LAST TIME OUT

There are three stand-out courses for a horses prep run, Doncaster, Ascot and Newbury. Horses arriving from a run at one of those 3 courses run 56% better than expected with 11 of the last 16 winners, however if they came from any other course last time out they perform 45% below expectations. Horses arriving today on the back of a run at Doncaster, Ascot or Newbury are :- Field Of Dream, Fury, Proud Chieftain, Chapter Seven, Forgive, Gabrial The Great, Ascription, Tha'ir, Boonga Roogeta.  

LAST TIME OUT FIELD SIZE

Horses coming out of a big race field last time out are out performing horses coming from smaller fields by a wide margin. If the last run was in a race with less than 15 runners then they are performing 60% below expectations with just 3 winners from 283 runners. Whereas if they ran in a 15+ runner race last time out they are over-performing by 48% with 13 of the last 16 winners from 239 runners. Qualifiers from 15+ runner fields last time out are :- Dance And Dance, Tres Coronas, Prince Of Johanne, The Rectifier, Field Of Dream, King's Warrior, Belgian Bill, Jack's Revenge, Fury, Graphic, Danchai, Seek Again, Queensberry Rules.  

SUMMARY

Two horses qualify on 3 of the above trends  

FURY and QUEENSBURY RULES