5 things you didn't know about the Cambridgeshire Handicap 2013September 26th, 2013
15:50 Newmarket - The Cambridgeshire
TOP 3 IN THE BETTING
Not surprisingly in a race which is the focus of a lot of attention, the top 3 in the betting have won half of the last 16 renewals from just 55 runners. You could have backed them all and made an £11 profit at SP to a £1 stake. They are over-performing to the tune of 45% at present so there is value to be had in the first 3 in the betting. If you also couple this with only looking at the front 3 in the betting that are under 10/1 then the profit rises to £14 and is better than expectations by 54% You will need to look up the front 3 in the market in on the day of racing but there are currently 5 horses vying for the three spots, they are :- Top Notch Tonto, Ascription, Graphic, Queensbury Rules and Educate.
NUMBER OF RUNS PROFILE
8 of the last 16 winners had run no more than 7 times in the last year and had zero runs in the last month. This is 53% better than expected. This years qualifiers are :- Sam Sharp, King's Warrior, Belgian Bill, Captain Bertie, Fury, Bronze Angel. Arsaadi. Code Of Honor, Queensberry Rules.
LAST TIME OUT FINISHING POSITION
Horses who finished in the first 4 last time out have won 12 of the last 16 renewals but that doesn't tell the whole story. 5 of them had finished 1st or 2nd last time out but they represent no value, performing 33% below expectations. The remaining 7 had finished 3rd or 4th on their last start and these are under-bet so are over-performing by 85%. This years runners who finished 3rd or 4th on their last start are :- Tres Coronas, The Rectifier, Jack's Revenge, Captain Bertie, Robert The Painter, Arsaadi, Strictly Silver, King George River, Code Of Honor, Seek Again.
COURSE LAST TIME OUT
There are three stand-out courses for a horses prep run, Doncaster, Ascot and Newbury. Horses arriving from a run at one of those 3 courses run 56% better than expected with 11 of the last 16 winners, however if they came from any other course last time out they perform 45% below expectations. Horses arriving today on the back of a run at Doncaster, Ascot or Newbury are :- Field Of Dream, Fury, Proud Chieftain, Chapter Seven, Forgive, Gabrial The Great, Ascription, Tha'ir, Boonga Roogeta.
LAST TIME OUT FIELD SIZE
Horses coming out of a big race field last time out are out performing horses coming from smaller fields by a wide margin. If the last run was in a race with less than 15 runners then they are performing 60% below expectations with just 3 winners from 283 runners. Whereas if they ran in a 15+ runner race last time out they are over-performing by 48% with 13 of the last 16 winners from 239 runners. Qualifiers from 15+ runner fields last time out are :- Dance And Dance, Tres Coronas, Prince Of Johanne, The Rectifier, Field Of Dream, King's Warrior, Belgian Bill, Jack's Revenge, Fury, Graphic, Danchai, Seek Again, Queensberry Rules.
Two horses qualify on 3 of the above trends