5 things you didn't know about the Epsom DerbyMay 30th, 2013
10 of the last 15 winners were Irish Bred. They have won 27% more races than expected. Irish Breds in this years Derby are Dawn Approach, Flying The Flag, Mars, Battle Of Marengo, Galileo Rock and Ruler Of The World.
Top 4 in the betting
14 of the last 15 winners were in the top 4 of the betting. This is from 62 runners and you could have backed them all for a £10 profit to a £1 bet at SP. This is 30% higher than expectations. The top in the market this year are Dawn Approach, Battle Of Marengo, Ocovango and Ruler Of The World.
7/1 or lower
14 of the last 15 winners were 7/1 or lower in the betting. 30% more winners than expected are coming from those at 7/1 and under. There three runners currently at 7/1 or under Dawn Approach, Battle Of Marengo and Ruler Of The World.
Lay all Aidan O'Brien's runners
Although in the last 15 years Aidan O'Brien has had 3 winners and a further 9 placed horses in the Derby, he has had 50 runners. Laying all of these to a £2 lay resulted in a profit of £74 (after commission). His runners are currently running 37% below expectations in the Derby. Aidan O'Brien runs five in this years Derby, Flying The Flag, Mars, Festive Cheer, Battle Of Marengo and Ruler Of The World.
Group 1 or 2 form
9 of the last 15 winners ran 1st or 2nd in a Group 1 or 2 race last time out. This is from 39 runners for a 23% strike rate and is 46% better than the expected winners. Three qualifers in this years race are Dawn Approach, Battle Of Marengo and Libertarian.