The Welsh National is a Grade 3 National Hunt chase in Great Britain which is open to horses aged four years or older. It is run at Chepstow, Wales, over a distance of about 3 miles and 5½ furlongs

1. French Bred

6 winners from a population of 55 runners, French bred horses have a better than expected performance of 41% yielding £8.50 profit (£1 stake) and 15.45% ROI at starting prices. Contenders: Amigo, Tour Des Champs, Chartreux, Harouet

2. Recent Runs in Last 3 Months

Horses entered in this race with 2 runs in the last 3 months have won 9 times form a population of 95 horses. This is a 59% better than expected statistical performance returning a £9.33 profit (£1 stake), 9.82% ROI at starting prices Contenders: Tidal Bay, Hey Big Spender, Well Refreshed, Harouet, Ace High, Wyck Hill, Vintage Star, Goonyella, Mountainous, Merry King, Tour Des Champs, Highland Lodge, Amigo

3. Course Last Time Out

Historically, horses whose most recent run prior to the Welsh National was at Chepstow or Cheltenham won 10 times from collective populations of 80 runners. Horses with recent runs at Chepstow have statistical performance 101% better than expected returning a profit of £66 (£1 stake) and 173.68% ROI Contenders: Hawkes Point, Goulanes, Mountainous, Tour Des Champs

4. The Fab 4 Trainers

Paul Nicholls, Alan King, Nigel Twiston Davis and Venetia Williams have collectively won 6 Welsh Grand National races. Their win and place strike rates are 33.33%, 50%, 26.32% and 40% respectively. Contenders: Hawkes Point, Tidal Bay, Tour De Champs, Red Rocco

​5. 1^st or 2^nd Last Time Out

Collectively horses that were 1^st or 2^nd last time have won a total of 10 Welsh Grand Nationals from a population of 93 horses. A 20% better than expected performance returning £15.83 (£1 stake), 17.02% ROI at starting prices.

Contenders: Knock A Hand, Vintage Star, Hey Big Spender, Red Rocco

Conclusion Applying the above statistical factors above against declared runners, Tour De Champs heads the list and is our each-way selection for the Welsh Grand National.