Royal Ascot 2024 - Profrom Stats and Systems

June 11th, 2024

By Andrew Mount

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Tuesday, June 18

2.30 - Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) (4yo+)

Four-year-old colts have a seven from 45 record in the past ten years for a profit of £34.35 to a £1 level stake at SP, mostly thanks to last year’s 33-1 winner Triple Time. Four-year-old colts whose latest outing came in another Group 1 contest were six from 22 (+£23.35). This angle would have got us through the Placepot in three of the four blank years, with the only failure in 2019 when sole qualifier Romanised was fourth of 16 at 25-1.

 

5.05 – 2m4f Ascot Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+, 0-100)

Willie Mullins has form figures in this 2m4f handicap of 26107170113450220020 (4-20) for a profit of £11.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who ran over hurdles last time out recorded figures of 610101135022002 (4-15) for a profit of £16.00.

Four-year-olds are 0-41 in the past ten years (expected winners = 2.18) and last year’s four qualifiers all finished unplaced, including a 6-1 seventh.

Backing those aged seven or older would have found seven of the last ten winners and made a profit of £72.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (largely thanks to Reshoun’s 66-1 success in 2021)…

 

 

 

 

5.40 – 1m2f Wolferton Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

This is another middle-distance Royal Ascot contest in which the draw is important with those berthed very low (stalls 1, 2 and 3) failing to score from 36 runners in the past 12 seasons. Layers had a ‘squeaky bum’ moment last year when the qualifiers included 7-1 runner-up Bolshoi Ballet, though his subsequent Group 1 win just highlights how big a disadvantage he was trying to overcome at Ascot.

As with the 1m4f trip, those who challenge late/wide are often favoured and we can use the Proform Pace Rating to narrow the field further….

…the figures for those with a Pace Rating of zero are disappointing, though several of these were foreign raiders whose running styles weren’t in the Proform database, so were given zero as a default value.

Combining a draw in stall 4 or higher and a Pace Rating between 2 and 6 gives us the following results in the past 12 years…

Unfortunately, this produced between five and 11 qualifiers every year but at least it gives us a starting point to tackle a tricky race.

 

 

 

 

 

Wednesday, June 19

5.05 – 1m Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)

Without knowing the draw and pace scenario it’s difficult to have a strong opinion on the Royal Hunt Cup at this stage but one interesting angle is the good recent record of colts, with those who arrived at Ascot on the back of a top-three effort scoring five times from 21 qualifiers for a profit of £51.00…

 

5.40 – 1m (round) Kensington Palace Stakes (Handicap) (4yo+)

This 1m handicap for fillies and mares run over the round mile has only been part of Royal Ascot for three years and in that time, we could have backed every runner and made a profit of £23.00 to a £1 level stake at SP…

All three winners were four-year-olds and all had raced within the past month.

 

6.15 – 5f Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) (2yo)

It has not been easy to come from off the pace to land this 5f Listed contest in recent years, with only one winner arriving late (from 105) runners in the past ten renewals…

…pre-race, it’s hard to predict the running styles of the protagonists as they are very lightly raced but it could be a useful angle for in-running betting.

 

 

 

Thursday, June 20

3.05 – 1m4f King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo, 0-105)

Splitting the last ten winners by draw makes interesting reading…

…those drawn in the five lowest stalls had a combined record of just one win from 50 runners. The sole scorer was Hukum in 2020 who took this off a handicap mark of just 90 before going on to land eight Group races and earn an official rating of 127.

Nine of the last ten winners ran first or second in their prep race, though backing them blind would have returned a loss of £18.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£23.08 at Betfair SP after 2% commission)…

However, the qualifiers who started as favourite in their prep race fared exceptionally well, landing seven of their 50 starts for a profit of £14.50 (+£49.96 at BSP after comm)…

Combining the above angles into a system – won or finished second last time out when starting as SP favourite and drawn in stall 6 or higher at Ascot - gives us seven winners from 40 bets for a profit of £24.50 (+£59.80 at BSP). Throw out those who made the running last time out (it’s desperately difficult to make all in big-field handicaps over the 1m4f trip at Ascot) and the score improves to seven from 33. This angle hit the forecast/Exacta in 2021 (5-1 beat 4-1 from five qualifiers), in 2019 (22-1 beat 11-2 from just three qualifiers), again in 2018 (9-1 beat 12-1 from three qualifiers) and also in 2014 (4-1 beat 4-1 from four qualifiers).

 

3.45 - 1m4f Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo)

I struggled to find many punting angles for the Ribblesdale but did stumble upon some interesting stats regarding sire country of breeding…

…the progeny of non-Irish sire are just one from 50 in the past ten years…

Those runners with an Irish sire and trained by Aidan O’Brien or the Gosdens fared exceptionally well…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.15 – 7f Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+, 0-105)

Since this race was re-introduced in 2020 all four winners were four-year-olds and all were drawn very high or very low…

We’re dealing with dangerously small sample sizes, but it was interesting to note that backing four-year-olds who finished in the top six in their prep race, for which they had an SP rank of six or lower, produced the following results…

Last year’s seven qualifiers included the 1-2-4, while in 2021 the eight qualifiers included the first three finishers (18-1, 10-1 and 18-1).

 

 

 

 

Friday, June 21

4.25 – 1m4f Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)

Like in the King George V Stakes – the meeting’s other 1m4f handicap – we should be looking to pace/draw analysis to gain an edge. There are the draw stats for the past ten years…

Stalls 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 have a combined record of 0-50, while the lowest eight draws provided just one winner from 80 runners.

All ten winners had an SP rank of five or lower in their prep race and combining this angle with a draw in stall 9 or higher gives the following results…

…the sole blank year was in 2020 when COVID-19 made prepping horses difficult. This angle produced the 1-2-3 (9-1, 15-2 and 11-1) from seven qualifiers last year and again in 2022 (11-2, 17-2 and 15-2) from six qualifiers.

 

6.15 – 5f Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo, 0-105)

This is another relatively new race with only four previous runnings having taken place. All four winners were colts or geldings, all were SP ranked four or lower in their prep race, all four made the running or raced prominently on their latest start (those ridden patiently last time were 0-30) and all four had prepped in a Class 2 or lower contest (those stepping back from Class 1 level were 0-31). Combining the above angles into a system gives the following results…

Again, we’re dealing with a very small sample size, but it can give us a starting point to tackle yet another very tricky handicap.

 

 

 

 

Saturday, June 22

3.05 – 7f Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (3yo) (Class 1) (3yo)

In the past ten years, runners who prepped at either Newbury or Newmarket have won seven times (from 56 representatives) for a profit of £19.50 to a £1 level stake at SPO (expected winners = 3.67), A/E= 1.91). Those who ran over 6f or 1m at Newbury or Newmarket were six from 35 for a profit of £35.50. Last year was a blank one (for the first time since 2017) but the four qualifiers included 22-1 runner-up Zoology and 7-1 fourth Holloway Boy.

 

5.40 – 1m2f Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo, 0-105)

This is the fifth year of the Golde Gates and the fifth year of me, so far unsuccessfully, trying to get people to refer to it as the ‘Gareth Gates’. As with the two 1m4f handicaps, we’re looking for hold-up performers drawn middle-to-high. Here’s the draw breakdown so far…

All four previous winners were colts and backing those drawn in stall 7 or above would have produced the following results…

…again, we’re dealing with small sample sizes, but this produced the 1-2-3 last year (20-1, 9-2 and 9-2 from seven qualifiers) and in 2022 (5-2, 40-1 and 12-1) from five qualifiers).

 

 

Jockey Angles

Jamie Spencer and Hayley Turner do exceptionally well in the Royal Ascot handicaps over distances or 1m or shorter (i.e. mostly on the straight tracks, except for the Kensington Palace Stakes). ..

 

Post-Royal Ascot

This meeting is obviously a good source of future winners and I wanted to share a couple of systems that have served me well over the years…

 

‘Britannia Flops’

This isn’t a reference to King Charles on his wedding night, but a system based on horses who underperform in the Britannia Stakes. The system rules are simple – LTO course = Ascot, Handicaps Only LTO, LTO race name contains ‘Britannia’, LTO Odds (SP) <=14/1, LTO finishing position >=8. This has given the following results since 2007…

 

Drawn badly in Queen Mary Stakes LTO

In recent years, high draws have enjoyed a big advantage in the Queen Mary Stales and simply backing any horse from that race who was drawn in stall 12 or lower, on their next outing (regardless of where they finished at Ascot), would have produced a good profit…

 

by Andrew Mount

Racing pundit/journalists with daily tipping/analysis columns for GG.co.uk, SportsLens.com and Tote.co.uk. I also write a weekly column for Racing & Football Outlook.

Past lives include racecourse bookmaker, author of the Trend Horses books for Raceform, full-time pro punter and racehorse owner.