By Andrew Mount

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1.30 – Turners Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

Early pace was the key ingredient in this race 12 months ago when 15-2 shot Stage Star made most of the running to score from the always-prominent 40-1 chance Notlongtillmay in a seven-runner field, blowing the Tote Placepot wide open. GINNY’S DESTINY, a stablemate of Stage Star, has won from the front over course and distance the last twice and looks the obvious one, despite having yet to contest a Graded chase. GREY DAWNING comfortably accounted for Ginny’s Destiny in a Grade 2 hurdle at Warwick last term and would likely have beat him over course and distance in December but for a mistake at the second-last fence. His patient running style is of some concern, but Dan Skelton’s grey has a fantastic attitude and form figures of 11111F121 (7-9) if we ignore his hurdles and chase debut.

The most interesting stat for this race concerns horses who had won at a previous Cheltenham festival and, using Proform, we can easily access this information by ticking a handy little box named ‘Had Previously WON at any Cheltenham Festival’ in the Horse2 tab on the System builder…

Here are the results since 2014 when the race was awarded Grade 1 status….

…five winners from nine runners and a profit of £7.20 to a £1 level stake at SP. The profits could have been even greater had Envoi Allen 2021) and Galopin Des Champs (2022) not fallen. Here’s the full list of finishing positions, accessed by double clicking on the system results… 

FACILE VEGA will qualify if he runs here instead of in the Arkle.

 

 

2.10 – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)

Previous Cheltenham festival placed form (not winning form) has been a good guide to the handicap hurdles in the past five years, with seven winners from 57 bets for a profit of £81.00…

…this angle produced the Pertemps winner in 2019 (from four qualifiers), in 2020 (from just three qualifiers) and in 2022 (25-1 shot Third Wind from five qualifiers). Last year’s three qualifiers included 22-1 third MILL GREEN, who would be my idea of the each-way play if he lined up again.

 

 

2.50 – Ryanair Chase (Grade 1)

I’ve no strong systems to help pinpoint the winner of the Ryanair Chase, though I have several horses on my radar…

BANBRIDGE won well from subsequent Grade 1 score Pic D’Orhy at Kempton last time to take his record over trips of about 2m4f to 1411311 (5-7). He prefers good to soft or faster going and is likely to go close at least if encountering his ideal underfoot conditions.

STAGE STAR won last year’s Turners over track and trip under a front-running ride and his forcing style has been seen to good effect in this race, with four of the last ten winners making all or most of the running…

Those who made the running in their prep race are five from 22 in the past ten renewals for a profit of £15.07…

CONFLATED has unseated his rider the last twice but he would likely have been second to Allaho in this race two years ago but for a late fall and his only other Cheltenham run saw him finish a 22-1 third in last year’s Gold Cup. He could go well if his jumping holds up, admittedly a big ‘if’.

 

AHOY SENOR tends to get better as the season progresses and his record in March/April looks like this…

 

HITMAN finds winning difficult, but he often runs well in defeat and, last year, I banked on him to finish second in a combination Tote Trifecta, with any other horse to win or be third. I looked nailed on for a big payday approaching the last fence when Envoi Allen (13-2), Hitman (22-1) and French Dynamite (28-1) were 1-2-3.

Commentator Mark Johnston provided the kiss of death with the words ‘Shishkin looks held in fourth’ but the even-money favourite rallied to get second and deny me a big win. Paul Nicholls’ eight-year-old returned to form with a second place behind Shishkin at Newbury last time, a position he has filled in eight of his 21 starts, and will again be going in my Placepot.

 

 

 

3.30 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

In the past ten years, simply backing all six and seven-year-olds in this race would have hit the winner on eight occasions…

Last year was a blank one but putting all four qualifiers in the Placepot would have seen us through to the next leg. The last five qualifiers to prep in Grade 1 company recorded form figures of 11511 with the wins at 12-1, 12-1, 10-1 and 4-1. This year’s qualifiers are IRISH POINT, BUDDY ONE, CRAMBO, TEAHUPOO and THELME. Teahupoo, third last year, needs genuinely heavy going.

This is his career record split by actual going based on Proform’s going allowance…

 

 

4.10 – TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)

Like most chases run on Cheltenham’s New Course, early pace is key. Seven of the last ten winners of the Plate made all or at least raced prominently…

Unfortunately, predicting who is going to lead is not always as simple as glancing at Proform’s excellent pace maps. One of the participants might have made the running in its last three starts but if those runs took place in small fields and/or in a much lower grade they might struggle to dominate in a big-field handicap. Here are the last-time out pace abbreviations of the winners…

…six of the ten were ridden patiently.

Perhaps a more helpful angle is to look for last-time out winners…

This angle has found four of the last five winners and would have got us through the blank year (2022) with 7-2 runner-up Imperial Alcazar. Conversely, those who finished second through to sixth in their prep race have a poor record…

Going back to those last-time out winners, only backing the ones who had scored in a big field (11+ runners) would have found five winners from just 12 bets for a profit of £39.08. Of this year’s last-time-out winners the only qualifiers are GA LAW and MADARA.

 

 

4.50 – Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)

I’ve not got a great deal to say about this contest but in the past four years it’s interesting to note that all four winners (16-1, 15-2, 5-1 and 9-2) had prepped in a Grade 2 mares’ race. SPRINGTIME PROMISE is one of the qualifiers this year and I thought she could out-run big odds.

 

 

5.30 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase

The profile of Kim Muir winners has changed in recent years, with Irish-based trainers taking four of the last five renewals and younger/lightly raced horses often coming to the fore. However, one of the simplest angles to side with horses who had raced in the past 28 days. These are the results since 2012…

 

by Andrew Mount

Racing pundit/journalists with daily tipping/analysis columns for GG.co.uk, SportsLens.com and Tote.co.uk. I also write a weekly column for Racing & Football Outlook.

Past lives include racecourse bookmaker, author of the Trend Horses books for Raceform, full-time pro punter and racehorse owner.