By Andrew Mount

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1.30 – Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

I don’t have a strong opinion in this 2m5f contest though the most interesting stat to note is that horses beaten in their prep race are just one from 60 in the past ten years (-£54.50 to a £1 level stake at SP), though the expected number of winners was only 1.86. Three of the current top six in the antepost betting – ILE ANTLANTIQUE, SLADE STEEL and PREDATORS GOLD - all finished second on their latest outing. British-trained pair GIDLEIGH PARK, who has a fantastic attitude when challenged, and HANDSTANDS are on my radar, in addition to the Willie Mullins-trained READIN TOMMY WRONG.

 

2.10 – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

Nine of the last ten winners prepped in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase, though backing all 63 qualifiers would have returned a loss of £11.38 to a £1 level stake at SP. However, had we only backed those representing British-based trainers we’d have won six of our 32 bets and made a profit of £12.25 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£20.19 at Betfair SP after 2% commission).

There were no qualifiers in 2015 but this angle would have seen us safely get through to the next leg of the Tote Placepot in eight of the other nine years. Paul Nicholls’ STAY AWAY FAY, third in the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase last time out, fits the bill.

 

2.50 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)

The Coral Cup is one of the trickiest handicaps of the week but those looking for some Placepot angles without wading through the form of all the runners might want to concentrate on the top six in the weights. We can use the Proform System Builder to quickly find the previous qualifiers…in the Date tab select the years you want to study (I’ve gone back to 2009 to cover 15 renewals) and have just the month of March ticked…

In the Race tab enter ‘Coral Cup’ in the Race Name Contains box…

Next, we selected Cheltenham in the Course Tab

And finally, in the Horse tab we enter ‘<=6’ (equal to or less than 6) in the Weight Rank box…

This gives us the following results…

Nine winners from 103 bets across the 15 renewals for a profit of £109.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£154.84 at Betfair SP after 2% commission). BALLYADAM has kept on into fifth place in the last two runnings of the County Hurdle and, having placed in Grade 1 company over 2m7.5f last time, is going to relish the 2m5f trip of the Coral Cup this year. Henry De Bromhead’s nine-year-old is currently fourth in the weights.

 

3.30 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)

EL FABIOLO is going to be very difficult to beat but those looking for an each-way punt could do worse than Henry De Bromhead’s CAPTAIN GUINNESS. His trainer has a fine record in this race…

…with six of the beaten horses finishing second or third, including Captain Guinness who was 12-1 when chasing home Energumene in this race last year. The nine-year-old missed this meeting in 2022 but ran third to Shishkin in the 2021 Arkle, just missing out on second place and was travelling well when brought down two out in Shishkin’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in 2020.

 

4.50 – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)

I’ll play my ‘get out of jail free’ card for the Cross Country Chase (4.15) but the Grand Annual is more my cup of tea and there are a few stats we can use to narrow the field – horses who raced within the past 28 days have a poor recent record (last ten years)…

Those who were unfancied in their prep race (defined as starting as sixth or worse in the betting) also struggled…

Jockeys who claim a weight allowance have a poor recent record…

Last-time out winners were just one from 40 in the past ten years…

The top three in the weights also struggled…

Combining the above angles into a system – i.e. beaten in prep race, fourth or lower in the weights, jockey didn’t claim an allowance, rested for more than four weeks and started in the first five in the betting last time out – gives the following results…

 

5.30 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1)

This century, Champion Bumper runners who had their final prep race within the past four weeks have a poor record…

…the sole winner was 11-1 shot Ferney Hollow in 2020.

Proform’s Power Ratings have been an excellent guide to this race and simply backing the top six rated would have found 12 winners in the past 15 renewals (from 90 bets) for a profit of £65.00 to a £1 level stake at SP…

Backing only the last-time out winners who were trained in Ireland would have found nine winners from 37 bets for a profit of £65.50.

 

Best of luck on Day Two.

 

by Andrew Mount

Racing pundit/journalists with daily tipping/analysis columns for GG.co.uk, SportsLens.com and Tote.co.uk. I also write a weekly column for Racing & Football Outlook.

Past lives include racecourse bookmaker, author of the Trend Horses books for Raceform, full-time pro punter and racehorse owner.