5 Pointers for the EclipseJuly 1st, 2016
The racing calendar rolls on to the Eclipse at Sandown this Saturday; known as the race in which horses of four years and up first take on three-year-old newcomers who’ve made their names in the Classic races thus far.
Last year’s winner Golden Horn having previously won the Derby went on to win the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and this year could see a high class renewal with the entries of The Gurkha and My Dream Boat.
We’ve written about this race in a previous post; here are the key trends for this year’s renewal:
5 Year Olds
Horses aged 5 have won 6 races in total compared to 3 yo’s (6) and 4yo’s (6).
This race has been won by some great 3yo’s most recently Sea The Stars and Golden Horn, but that pair are the only winners from the classic generation in the last decade.
5yo’s perform 37% higher than expected, although the last win from this age group was in 2014 (Al Kazeem).
Two Recent Run’s
Horses that had a couple of runs prior to the Eclipse perform 104% above normal (5 wins from a population of 13 horses of this type).
Trainer Aiden O’Brien has won this race on five occasions since 1998. 44% better than expected and a thus far a profit of £8.29 to a £1 stake at Exchange starting prices (31.90% ROI).
Horses that raced “prominently” have won 9 of the last 18 renewals (from a population of 58 horses). This result is 24% above normal expectation and has resulted in a profit at Exchange starting prices of £16.66 to a £1 stake (28.73% ROI).
Courses for Eclipse Horses
Horses that ran at Ascot in their race prior to the Eclipse have won 13 of the las 18 renewals, 32% above normal.