Key Trends: Royal Ascot: Day 5June 17th, 2016
The Diamond Jubilee Stakes is the feature on the final day of Royal Ascot and our analysis indicates little by the way of significant trends we can identify in the race.
Therefore we turn our attention to the Hardwick and the Wokingham Stakes.
THE HARDWICKE STAKES
The Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes is open to horses aged four years or older and raced over a distance of 1 mile and 4 furlongs.
Of the three age groups which dominate the winners of the Hardwick, 4yo’s are 12/19. 5yo’s have won three and 6yo’s have won four races.
Trainers Sir Michael Stoute (6) and Mark Johnston (4) account 10 of the last 19 renewals. Aiden O’Brien has won this race on two occasions.
Position in Betting Market.
Horses ranked in the first three in the betting are 12/19 however collectively, they underperform by12% and suggests punters are over-betting these types of horses i.e. placing too much credence on their position in the betting market.
Group 1 Performers
Of the 35 horses who ran in a Group 1 race prior to Royal Ascot, eight went on to win the Hardwick Stakes, a performance 25% above expectation and so far has produced a profit of £25.06 (71.61%) at Betfair starting prices to a £1 stake.
The Wokingham like all big field Class 2 handicaps are the most challenging for punters to unravel given the many factors to consider such as recent form, draw, pace, ability etc.
We identified two significant trends in a blog post a few years ago which you may wish to consider in this year’s analysis of the race.
Below are some additional pointers:
Horses aged four (6), five (9) and six (3) have collectively won 18 of the last 19 with 5yo’s performing best of the three age groups by 64% above par..
Based on the expectation implied by their market odds, horses bred in Great Britain underperform by 40% (5/19).
The front four of the market are 11/19, a performance 48% above normal.
Our analysis suggests that this is a race made for horses that like to play a waiting game with horses running “held up” off the pace accounting for 12 of the last 19 renewals. This performance is 29% above expectation.
Position Last Time Out
Note: 85 horses won their race prior to the Wokingham, however their record of 3/19 which is 31% below normal.