Key Trends: Royal Ascot: Day 3June 15th, 2016
The GOLD CUP is the feature event on day three of Royal Ascot. The race is Britain's most prestigious event for "stayers" i.e. horses which specialise in racing over long distances.
Let’s look at the key trends for the race since 1997:
Horses aged four (8), five (4) and six (5) collectively are 17 from 19.
The “jolly” has captured the Gold Cup 8 times and performed 30% above normal. In total the top four in the betting market have won 14 of the last 19 renewals.
Statistically it pays to race “prominently” …
Horses of these type have won 12 races and perform 37% above normal.
Position in Market: Recent Race
Horses ranked in the first three in the betting in their race prior to the Gold Cup are 15/19 and perform 17% above market expectation.
Courses for Gold Cup Horses
Horses which ran at Sandown (7) and Ascot (3) prior to the Gold Cup account for 10 of the last 19 races since 1997.
The Ribblesdale Stakes is a Group 2 event open to three-year-old fillies and raced over a distance of 1 mile and 4 furlongs.
In this race, the tables are turned on prominent runners toward those that like to race “held up” off the pace.
Horses with this running style have won 11 from 19 renewals, a performance 24% above normal and a £46.44 profit (45.53% ROI) to a £1 stake at Betfair starring prices.
Caution - The Favourite
Favourites in the Ribblesdale underperform by 24% (4 wins from 19 renewals).
The Norfolk Stakes is a Group 2 event open to two-year-old sprinters over a distance of 5 furlongs.
The image above from our System Builder which orders historical results from the Norfolk Stakes by starting price rank.
As you can see, the majority of winners have emerged from the first three in the betting. However, the favourite underperforms by 41% (A/E 0.59)
Unusually for a sprint event, horses that like to race well of the pace (“held up”) are 7/19, perform 23% above normal and thus far are profitable to a £1 stake at Betfair starting prices (£35.58, 48.75% ROI)
Below is our Proform Pace Map for the race:
THE BRITANNIA STAKES
The Britannia Stakes is a handicap open to three-year-old colts and geldings and raced over a distance of 1 mile.
Country of Breeding
Horses bred in the United Kingdom perform 23% above normal (10 wins from a population of 225 horses). Contrast this against horses bred in Ireland who underperform by 30% (5 wins from a population of 209 horses.