Key Trends - York Dante Festival: Day 2

May 11th, 2016

The DANTE STAKES is the feature event on day two of the festival at York and with ten winners of this Group 2 event subsequently going on to achieve victory in the Epsom classic in June, this race has earned the right over the years as a key trial for the Derby.

Here are our key trends for the race (since 1998):


Winner Winner Chicken Dinner

Horses that won their race last time out (in the UK or IRE) have recorded 13 wins from a population of 61 runners. The 21% strike rate represents a performance which is 17% above normal yielding a profit at SP of £12.90 to a £1 stake.


Stoute vs. O'Brien

Combined, Michael Stoute and Aidan O'Brien have notched up 8 Dante Stakes wins between them since 1998. If you include the 8 placed horses carried out on their shields, entries from these stables deserve your upmost attention.


The Break that Refreshes

Horses coming off a break of 150+ days since their last run have won 9 of the last 18 renewals from just 41 participants. This record is 26% above expectation.


The Fab Four

Horses which ran at Newmarket (4), Doncaster (4), Newbury (3) and Sandown (2) account for 13 wins of the Dante Stakes in the last 18 renewals. Following this betting strategy would have resulted in 86 bets, 13 winners and a profit of £14.52 at SP and a 17% ROI.


Irish Dance the Dante

Irish Bred horse fare well in the Dante Stakes winning 9 of the last 18 renewals from 47 runners.

The expected winners based on the prices of each runner suggest 6.07 winners. With the actual number of winners totalling 9, history suggests that Irish bred horses perform 48% above expectations.