AWC Middle Distance Championships Conditions StakesMarch 25th, 2016
With races ranging in distance from 10 furlongs (2,000 metres) to 12 furlongs (2,400 metres), the Middle Distance category comprises all Middle Distance races during the qualifying period. With prize money of £200,000, it is the UK’s richest All-Weather Race.
Ratings and Runner Stats
Download Proform Pointers
Click this link to download a file detailing Proform pointers for each runner.
Runner by Runner Comments
Grendisar: Winner of this year’s Group3 Winter Derby. Had Maverick Wave, Fire Fighting and Complicit behind on the day.
Watersmeet: Front runner. Recent winner AWC fast track qualifier at Dundalk. Beat Political Policy (2nd) by half a length.
Maverick Wave: Front runner. 2nd to Grendisar in the Winter Derby and lacked a “turn of foot” on the day. Subsequent 4th in a Class 2 Handicap at Kempton.
Winterlude: Recent winner of a Class 2 handicap over 1m4f at Wolverhampton.
Man Of Harlech: Post-race comments of last two runs suggest that he’ll need to settle when racing to run up to his best.
Battalion: Previously placed 6th in a Listed Race last December. Grendisar was placed 2nd in the same race.
Fire Fighting: 6th behind Grendisar in the Winter Derby. Reportedly raced wide throughout the race.
Complicit: Needs to overcome poor recent efforts.
Draw and Pace Tactics
As shown in our pace and draw prediction graphics above, Maverick Wave and Watersmeet are probable front runners in this race with the latter berthed in a wide draw.
Given the proximity of the first bend to the stall, Watersmeet will need brake smartly from his stall to negate the effect of racing wide at the first turn.
If breaking well Political Policy, is also expected play a part in the early pace make-up as contestants approach the first turn.
In summary, the shape of the race has an “honest” feel to it because the overall pace make-up does not suggest an overly fast or excessively slow pace.
The percentage call based on the course bias stats is to downgrade slightly the chances of the early paced horses (in terms of win probability) as this trip (1m2f) suits horses coming off the pace.
GRENDISAR re-opposes a number runners he put to the sword in the Winter Derby and given the manner of his victory his chances are obvious at prohibitive prices.
Of the rest, FIRE FIGHTING is well berthed to redeem a less than perfect trip in the Winter Derby and BATTALION makes up our duo of likely runners that will probably fill the placed positions behind GRENDISAR.