Saturday Stat Fever! NewburyMarch 21th, 2015
Now the dust has settled on Cheltenham races and with the Aintree Grand National meeting on the horizon, the National Hunt season doesn’t miss a beat with Saturday horse racing over the jumps at Bangor-on-Dee, Fontwell Park, Stratford, Kelso and Gowan Park.
Using our horse racing software, every day we analyse every race to find the key pointers for our subscribers and in this post we highlight the best of these in today’s racecards at Newbury.
13:25 Newbury - John Haine Memorial Novices' Hurdle
Nicky Henderson aims to follow up Sign Of A Victory’s win in 2014 with Hassle who flies the stable flag in this race.
With trainer form in the last 28 days of 12 wins from 57 runners (21.05%) a performance 30% above normal and a combined Trainer/Jockey performance with Barry Geraghty above normal expectation we suspect there are high hopes in the yard for Hassle to repeat last year’s success.
From the rest of the field, opposition may come from King's Tempest, trained by Warren Greatrex .
Still riding high from festival win on Cole Harden, Gavin Sheehan has excellent form when racing around 2 miles over Hurdles, performing 50% above expectation.
14:00 Newbury - Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase
At the time of this post, Pepite Rose heads the market.
Trained by Venetia Williams, Pepite Rose’s form at Newbury in Chases is 3-4 (75%) although in the last 28 days, Venetia has raced 72 runners and of these only 4 have won, a strike rate of 5.56% which is 60% below expectation.
14:35 Newbury EBF & TBA Mares' 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Finale (Listed Limited Handicap)
A very competitive novice handicap and a race where it’s difficult to have any fixed views on any of the runners.
15:10 Newbury - Ultima Business Solutions Silver Jubilee Handicap Chase
As many a punter will testify, one should always take note of any horse ridden by soon to be retired A P McCoy.
In this race he teams up with Financial Climate whose form when racing over a distance of 3 miles or more in Chases is 5-13 (38.46%), 120% above expectation.
15:45 Newbury - Doom Bar Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
A race for 4yo’s only and Storm Force Ten, Golden Doyen, Bishop Wulstan and Lil Rockerfeller are toward the top of Proform’s horse ratings.
Golden Doyen has something to prove after failing last time out and with Bishop Wulstan’s Trainer H Whittington form when racing last time out winners over jumps 1-12 (50% below expectation), we are left with Storm Force Ten and Lil Rockerfeller who are currently first and second favourites.
16:20 Newbury DBS Spring Sales Bumper (Standard Open NH Flat Race)
With minimal form to review, this is a race where we can use statistics can aid our section process.
The record of the market leader in races of this type is 8-40 (40%) which is 10% above what you would expect.
Although, if you are considering a bet on the current race favourite, here are a couple of stats to consider:
- Cultivator: Sire Form at around 2m 110y in NHF races: 77-920 (8.37%)
- Cultivator: Sire Form in National Hunt Flat races: 83-994 (8.35%)
16:55 Newbury Doom Bar Barista Bar Chelmsford Handicap Chase
Another race where the favourite performs well, 25-61 (41%), 30% above normal.
Again, here are the key stats for Village Vic who currently heads the market.
- Trainer/Jockey Combination at Newbury in Chases: 11-40 (27.5%)
- Jockey Form at Newbury in Chases: 12-61 (19.67%)
- Trainer Form at Newbury in Chases: 13-65 (20%)
- Jockey Form at Newbury over around 2m 1f in Chases: 12-55 (21.82%)
- Trainer/Jockey Combination in Chases: 124-584 (21.23%)
- Trainer Form at Newbury over around 2m 1f in Chases: 12-58 (20.69%)
- Jockey Form on LTO Winners over Jumps: 171-640 (26.72%)
- Horse Form Left Handed over Jumps: 3-11 (27.27%)
- Trainer Form with LTO Winners over Jumps: 103-435 (23.68%)
This is just a small sample from the vast number of our exceptional stats and profit pointers which can be found in our Daily Stats area on our web site every day.
Why not click on this link to view more of our unique stats for the other races today.