Handicap Analysis
Handicap Analysis
Speed-Form, Mark Edge and the Hot/Soft Index on every handicap race
What it is
Handicap Analysis is a dedicated tab on every handicap racecard that surfaces three signals: Speed-Form vs class par, Mark Edge vs last winning OR, and a race-level Hot/Soft Index. All history is scoped to today’s race-type only — Turf Flat, All-Weather, Chase and Hurdle are kept separate.
Race header — Hot/Soft Index
A 0–10 dial at the top of the tab summarises how competitive the handicap is.
| Label | Score | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| SOFT | 0 – 3.9 | Open at the bottom — top weights look vulnerable; well-handicapped runners lower in the weights have a real chance |
| WARM | 4 – 6.9 | Balanced — neither obviously open nor a tight competitive race |
| HOT | 7 – 10 | Competitive, tight, hard-to-call — runners bunched in OR and many in strong recent form |
How the score is built
- ✓OR spread (max OR − min OR in today’s field) — wider = lower score (more spread = softer at the bottom)
- ✓% within 2 lb of career-high OR — high % = higher score (exposed top end means real competition)
- ✓% with SF STRONG (≥+4) — high % = higher score (lots of horses running fast = real class)
- ✓# of long-handicap runners — high count = lower score (mark relief from below the band)
Race Insights (auto-commentary)
Right below the dial, an Insights panel surfaces 3–6 plain-English bullets. Examples:
- ✓Temperature explanation — why the race scored SOFT/WARM/HOT
- ✓Combined stand-outs — names of runners that are STRONG on speed-form AND racing off a soft mark
- ✓Career-low marks — runners racing off the lowest OR they’ve had at this discipline
- ✓Best speed-form — the runner with the highest SF score
- ✓Long-handicap callouts — runners below the band
- ✓Limited form alert — when a third or more of the field has thin recent data
Per-runner chips
Each runner row in the Handicap table has two adjacent chips:
SF — Speed-Form (two variants)
The runner row shows two Speed-Form columns side by side. Both use today’s class par as the benchmark, both are scoped to the horse’s runs at today’s discipline only (Turf Flat / All-Weather / Chase / Hurdle), and both use the same tier thresholds — but they answer different questions.
SF (frame) — the original signal. Average speed figure of the horse’s last 3 in-frame runs (positions 1st–4th) at today’s discipline, minus today’s class par. Filters out off-days and non-finishes, so it measures peak ability when the horse is firing. Best for spotting a horse with hidden class.
SF (all) — the recent-form signal. Average speed figure of the horse’s last 3 runs at today’s discipline regardless of finish position, minus today’s class par. Includes bad runs, falls and pulled-ups, so it measures current general form. Useful for spotting horses that have gone off the boil even if their peak is high.
Read them together: when SF (frame) is high but SF (all) is low, the horse can run to class but isn’t right now — be wary. When both are high, the horse is firing on all cylinders. When SF (all) is higher than SF (frame), the horse has had several finishes outside the frame recently — be sceptical of the “frame” version.
| Tier | Range | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| STRONG | ≥ +4 | Recent times well above class par — in form |
| FAIR | −3 to +3 | Roughly running to class par |
| WEAK | ≤ −4 | Recent times well below class par — out of form |
Note: the combined gold-dot stand-out tag (•) uses SF (frame) STRONG + ME SOFT. The (frame) variant is the higher-quality signal for “is this horse genuinely class enough” so we use it for the stand-out flag.
ME — Mark Edge
today’s OR − last winning OR, where the last winning OR is the mark this horse was rated off when it last won a handicap at this discipline. Wins in novice, maiden or conditions races don’t count — they’re not run under handicap conditions, so the OR the horse was carried at isn’t a validated winning handicap mark. Negative means racing off a lower mark than when it last won a handicap.
| Tier | Range | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| SOFT | ≤ −3 | Racing off a more attractive mark than its last win |
| LEVEL | −2 to +2 | Similar mark to its last win |
| HIGHER | ≥ +3 | Racing off a stiffer mark than when it last won |
★ Career-low star
Shown when today’s OR equals or is below the horse’s career-min OR at this discipline, and the horse has previously won a handicap at this discipline. Often a strong signal that the handicapper has given the horse a "way back in" — but only meaningful when there’s a real winning handicap mark to compare against, which is why never-won horses don’t get a star.
● Combined stand-out (gold dot)
Surfaces only when SF = STRONG and ME = SOFT on the same runner. This is the headline pick: running fast lately AND racing off a soft mark.
OR sparkline — click to expand
Every row has a small inline sparkline of the horse’s OR over its last 10 runs at today’s discipline. Dot colours match inline form: green = win, blue = placed (2nd–4th), grey = other. Click any sparkline to open a larger bar chart with hover detail and pattern matching against today’s conditions.
Pattern matching against today’s conditions
The expanded chart compares each past run against today on five conditions:
Within 1 firmness step (turf and AW kept separate)
Within 1 furlong of today’s trip
Same or within 1 class
Exact course match
Same band (small ≤8, medium 9–15, large 16+)
Each bar gets a 0–5 match score. Bars matching ≥3/5 conditions show at full opacity with thicker borders; lower-match bars are faded so the relevant runs stand out visually. A summary line above the chart tells you "X of N past runs match today on ≥3/5 conditions — Y wins, Z placed". Hover any bar for a 4-line tooltip with the full conditions and per-condition tick line. Click a bar to open that race in a new tab.
Worked example — Curragh 1m 6f Class 3 handicap (Good)
Race overview: 27 runners, OR spread 24 lb. The Hot/Soft Index reads SOFT 2.6/10 — wide spread, zero SF-STRONG runners, one long-handicap. Race Insights highlights 8 horses at career-low marks at this discipline.
Reverend Hubert (OR 89, top of the weights) reads as SF −1 FAIR · ME +10 HIGHER · 14 same-discipline runs. The expanded chart unpacks why: of his 10 most recent runs, only 4 match today on ≥3/5 conditions — and his only same-discipline win (Apr 2022 at Doncaster off OR 83) came in different conditions. The two condition-matched runs at this kind of trip + class were both unplaced.
The chart’s faded "low-match" runs visually de-emphasise the noise, so the actionable point — "today’s conditions don’t suit this horse historically" — pops out at a glance.
Tab availability
- ✓Handicap races only — the tab is greyed out for non-handicap races (Group races, novice events, conditions races, etc.) and the server returns an empty payload
- ✓Enterprise tier — admins always have access; lower tiers see the tab and an upgrade modal when they click
- ✓All history scoped to today’s discipline (Turf Flat / A-W / Chase / Hurdle)
Need more help? Visit the in-app Handicap guide or contact support@proformracing.com.