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Weekend jumps, 7 November: Aintree and Naas, what the price knew and the road to the festivals

by Simon Walton

Aintree (Friday 6 to Saturday 7 November) and Naas (Sunday 8 November): this weekend's big jumps meetings. For each we went through every jumps runner at the course in the same month since 2018 and asked one question: did they win more often than their Betfair price said they would? That is A/E: actual winners divided by the winners the Betfair prices expected, where 1.00 means the market had them exactly right. Then we followed them on to the two festivals that matter, the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown in February and the Cheltenham Festival in March.

The short version

  • Aintree: the split furthest from its price is 5-year-olds in non-handicap hurdles, 2 winners from 42, A/E 0.35.
  • Naas: the split furthest from its price is 6-year-olds and older in non-handicap hurdles, 3 winners from 67, A/E 0.68.
  • The Haldon Gold Cup has moved to Aintree this year, with the Rising Stars Novices' Chase, after Exeter and Wincanton were lost. Our Aintree figures are Aintree's own November races, so last year's Exeter running is a different course.
  • 14.6% of the horses who ran at these meetings went on to a festival the same season; 16 of them won there. The latest: Jacob's Ladder, 2nd at Naas in 2025, then won the Barberstown Castle Handicap Chase (0-150) at the Dublin Racing Festival in 2026.
  • 24 horses join the 2026-27 festival dossier from last weekend at Carlisle, Wetherby, Cork and Down Royal; 51 so far.

This weekend's jumps

Aintree, Friday 6 to Saturday 7 November

Aintree: what the price knew

8 Novembers, 56 races, 453 runners. Horses back from a summer break (181+ days) have the best strike rate of the days-off bands, and beat the price (A/E 1.18): 31 winners from 189 runners (16.4%), A/E 1.18, plus £7 at Betfair SP, in profit in 5 of 8 Novembers. The split furthest from its price is 5-year-olds in non-handicap hurdles: 2 from 42, A/E 0.35. Most winners: Olly Murphy among the trainers (6 from 23, A/E 1.46) and Aidan Coleman among the riders (5 from 18, A/E 1.83).

Aintree in November, table 1

Aintree in November, table 2

Aintree in November, table 3

Aintree in November, table 4

Aintree in November, table 5

Aintree in November, table 6

Naas, Sunday 8 November

Naas: what the price knew

8 Novembers, 63 races, 790 runners. Horses back from a summer break (181+ days) have the best strike rate of the days-off bands, and the price knew it (A/E 1.04): 33 winners from 243 runners (13.6%), A/E 1.04, minus £74 at Betfair SP, in profit in 2 of 8 Novembers. The split furthest from its price is 6-year-olds and older in non-handicap hurdles: 3 from 67, A/E 0.68. Most winners: Henry De Bromhead among the trainers (10 from 40, A/E 1.58) and Rachael Blackmore among the riders (10 from 31, A/E 1.86).

Naas in November, table 1

Naas in November, table 2

Naas in November, table 3

Naas in November, table 4

Naas in November, table 5

Naas in November, table 6

The road to the festivals

Who goes on to the festivals

Of every horse that ran at these meetings in this month since 2018, 14.6% ran at the Dublin Racing Festival or the Cheltenham Festival later that season (Dublin 82, Cheltenham 127). They won 16 festival races, an A/E of 1.19 at Betfair SP. Each horse counts once a season, by its last run here before the festivals.

Festival winners who ran here first

  • Jacob's Ladder: 2nd in the Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Beginners Chase at Naas (2025), then won the Barberstown Castle Handicap Chase (0-150) (Listed) at the Dublin Racing Festival (2026) (Betfair SP 3.64).
  • Johnnywho: 5th in the William Hill Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (National Course) at Aintree (2025), then won the Trustmarque Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival (2026) (Betfair SP 25.86).
  • Haiti Couleurs: 1st in the BoyleSports Best Odds Guaranteed Novices' Limited Handicap Chase at Aintree (2024), then won the Princess Royal National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival (2025) (Betfair SP 5.00).
  • Marine Nationale: 2nd in the Barberstown Castle Chase (Grade 3) at Naas (2024), then won the BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) at the Cheltenham Festival (2025) (Betfair SP 6.80).
  • Corbetts Cross: 3rd in the Mongey Communications Beginners Chase at Naas (2023), then won the Maureen Mullins National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys' Novices' Chase (Grade 2) at the Cheltenham Festival (2024) (Betfair SP 2.93).
  • Slade Steel: 1st in the Cavan Developments Home Builders Supporting St Marys GAA Maiden Hurdle at Naas (2023), then won the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) at the Cheltenham Festival (2024) (Betfair SP 5.08).
  • Heart Wood: 2nd in the Mongey Communications Beginners Chase at Naas (2023), then won the O'Driscolls Irish Whiskey Leopardstown Handicap Chase (Grade 3) at the Dublin Racing Festival (2024) (Betfair SP 7.41).
  • Fleur Au Fusil: 1st in the Bet In Running On Irish Racing At BetVictor Irish EBF Mares (Pro/Am) NH Flat Race at Naas (2023), then won the Coolmore N.H. Sires 'Hurricane Lane' Irish EBF Mares I.N.H. NH Flat Race (Grade 2) at the Dublin Racing Festival (2024) (Betfair SP 11.44).
  • Lord Erskine: 3rd in the Brown Lad Handicap Hurdle (Listed) at Naas (2023), then won the Timeless Sash Windows Handicap Hurdle (0-150) (Listed) at the Dublin Racing Festival (2024) (Betfair SP 50.00).
  • Gentleman De Mee: did not finish in the Barberstown Castle Poplar Square Chase (Grade 3) at Naas (2022), then won the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (Grade 1) at the Dublin Racing Festival (2023) (Betfair SP 10.01).

The 2026-27 festival dossier

The festival dossier

Not every race leads to the festivals. The dossier takes only the feeder races: the British and Irish jumps races whose past runnings sent 30% or more of their runners on to the Dublin Racing Festival or Cheltenham that season. Handicaps and maidens almost never do, so they stay out. Every Monday the first three in each of last weekend's feeder races go in. In February and March we check which of them made Dublin and Cheltenham, and how they ran there. This week: 24 horses from Carlisle, Wetherby, Cork and Down Royal, 51 in all.

  • Ash Hobbs (Henry De Bromhead): 1st of 7, Irish Stallion Farms EBF Feathard Lady Mares Novice Hurdle (Grade 3), Down Royal 30/10 (Betfair SP 5.88) (feeder race: 40% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 21%, Dublin 21%))
  • Switch From Diesel (Ross O'Sullivan): 2nd of 7, Irish Stallion Farms EBF Feathard Lady Mares Novice Hurdle (Grade 3), Down Royal 30/10 (Betfair SP 4.70) (feeder race: 40% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 21%, Dublin 21%))
  • Salsinha (Henry De Bromhead): 3rd of 7, Irish Stallion Farms EBF Feathard Lady Mares Novice Hurdle (Grade 3), Down Royal 30/10 (Betfair SP 5.74) (feeder race: 40% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 21%, Dublin 21%))
  • Matin Midi Et Soir (Henry De Bromhead): 1st of 7, BetVictor Beginners Chase, Down Royal 30/10 (Betfair SP 1.56) (feeder race: 36% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 34%, Dublin 16%))
  • Zanndabad (A J Martin): 2nd of 7, BetVictor Beginners Chase, Down Royal 30/10 (Betfair SP 34.00) (feeder race: 36% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 34%, Dublin 16%))
  • Port Authority (Gordon Elliott): 3rd of 7, BetVictor Beginners Chase, Down Royal 30/10 (Betfair SP 6.40) (feeder race: 36% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 34%, Dublin 16%))
  • Strong Leader (Olly Murphy): 1st of 3, bet365 Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The West Yorkshire Hurdle), Wetherby 31/10 (Betfair SP 2.88) (feeder race: 47% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 47%, Dublin 0%))
  • Lavida Adiva (Ruth Jefferson): 2nd of 3, bet365 Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The West Yorkshire Hurdle), Wetherby 31/10 (Betfair SP 6.88) (feeder race: 47% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 47%, Dublin 0%))
  • Take No Chances (Dan Skelton): 3rd of 3, bet365 Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The West Yorkshire Hurdle), Wetherby 31/10 (Betfair SP 1.97) (feeder race: 47% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 47%, Dublin 0%))
  • Pic D'Orhy (Dan Skelton): 1st of 6, bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2), Wetherby 31/10 (Betfair SP 2.00) (feeder race: 46% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 46%, Dublin 4%); quickest finish of the day (chases))
  • Handstands (Ben Pauling): 2nd of 6, bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2), Wetherby 31/10 (Betfair SP 6.60) (feeder race: 46% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 46%, Dublin 4%))
  • Riskintheground (Dan Skelton): 3rd of 6, bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2), Wetherby 31/10 (Betfair SP 41.35) (feeder race: 46% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 46%, Dublin 4%))
  • Haiti Couleurs (Rebecca Curtis): 1st of 5, BetVictor, Remembering Envoi Allen Champion Chase (Grade 1), Down Royal 31/10 (Betfair SP 10.77) (feeder race: 70% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 57%, Dublin 34%))
  • Fleur In The Park (Andrew Slattery): 2nd of 5, BetVictor, Remembering Envoi Allen Champion Chase (Grade 1), Down Royal 31/10 (Betfair SP 5.00) (feeder race: 70% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 57%, Dublin 34%))
  • Banbridge (Joseph Patrick O'Brien): 3rd of 5, BetVictor, Remembering Envoi Allen Champion Chase (Grade 1), Down Royal 31/10 (Betfair SP 3.55) (feeder race: 70% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 57%, Dublin 34%))
  • Kala Conti (Gordon Elliott): 1st of 5, Racing Post Chase (Grade 2), Down Royal 31/10 (Betfair SP 1.99) (feeder race: 35% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 27%, Dublin 19%))
  • Jacob's Ladder (Gordon Elliott): 2nd of 5, Racing Post Chase (Grade 2), Down Royal 31/10 (Betfair SP 2.90) (feeder race: 35% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 27%, Dublin 19%))
  • Herja (P Griffin): 3rd of 5, Racing Post Chase (Grade 2), Down Royal 31/10 (Betfair SP 12.43) (feeder race: 35% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 27%, Dublin 19%))
  • Love Me Tender (W P Mullins): 1st of 6, Paddy Power Betting Shops Irish EBF Novice Chase (Grade 3), Cork 01/11 (Betfair SP 2.07) (feeder race: 38% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 21%, Dublin 26%))
  • Frankie John (Denis Gerard Hogan): 2nd of 6, Paddy Power Betting Shops Irish EBF Novice Chase (Grade 3), Cork 01/11 (Betfair SP 6.15) (feeder race: 38% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 21%, Dublin 26%))
  • Vicar Street (W P Mullins): 3rd of 6, Paddy Power Betting Shops Irish EBF Novice Chase (Grade 3), Cork 01/11 (Betfair SP 7.24) (feeder race: 38% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 21%, Dublin 26%))
  • Wendigo (Jamie Snowden): 1st of 3, Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase (Listed), Carlisle 01/11 (Betfair SP 5.57) (feeder race: 30% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 30%, Dublin 0%))
  • Potters Charm (Nigel Twiston-Davies): 2nd of 3, Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase (Listed), Carlisle 01/11 (Betfair SP 1.87) (feeder race: 30% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 30%, Dublin 0%))
  • Doyen Quest (Dan Skelton): 3rd of 3, Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase (Listed), Carlisle 01/11 (Betfair SP 3.42) (feeder race: 30% of its runners go on (Cheltenham 30%, Dublin 0%))

Last week's feeder races at the festivals

How the runners from each of last week's feeder races got on when they went on to the festivals, every season since 2018 (every run, finished or not, £1 level stakes at Betfair SP, 2% commission).

  • BetVictor, Remembering Envoi Allen Champion Chase (Grade 1) (Down Royal): 70% went on. Cheltenham: 2 won, 8 placed from 25 runs, A/E 0.82, -£12.71 at Betfair SP. Dublin: 1 won, 2 placed from 15 runs, A/E 0.56, -£11.29 at Betfair SP. Festival winners: Envoi Allen (Cheltenham 2023, Betfair SP 8.67), Delta Work (Cheltenham 2022, Betfair SP 3.83), Delta Work (Dublin 2020, Betfair SP 3.77).
  • bet365 Hurdle (Grade 2) (Wetherby): 47% went on. Cheltenham: 0 won, 3 placed from 23 runs, A/E 0.00, -£23.00 at Betfair SP. Dublin: no runs. No festival winner since 2018.
  • bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) (Wetherby): 46% went on. Cheltenham: 0 won, 2 placed from 22 runs, A/E 0.00, -£22.00 at Betfair SP. Dublin: 0 won, 0 placed from 2 runs, A/E 0.00, -£2.00 at Betfair SP. No festival winner since 2018.
  • Irish Stallion Farms EBF Feathard Lady Mares Novice Hurdle (Grade 3) (Down Royal): 40% went on. Cheltenham: 0 won, 3 placed from 14 runs, A/E 0.00, -£14.00 at Betfair SP. Dublin: 1 won, 1 placed from 14 runs, A/E 0.69, -£11.15 at Betfair SP. Festival winners: Party Central (Dublin 2022, Betfair SP 2.89).
  • Paddy Power Betting Shops Irish EBF Novice Chase (Grade 3) (Cork): 38% went on. Cheltenham: 2 won, 2 placed from 13 runs, A/E 1.78, +£29.85 at Betfair SP. Dublin: 1 won, 4 placed from 16 runs, A/E 0.98, +£2.95 at Betfair SP. Festival winners: The Shunter (Cheltenham 2021, Betfair SP 3.85), Heaven Help Us (Cheltenham 2021, Betfair SP 39.83), Heaven Help Us (Dublin 2021, Betfair SP 19.32).
  • BetVictor Beginners Chase (Down Royal): 36% went on. Cheltenham: 1 won, 3 placed from 19 runs, A/E 0.33, -£13.37 at Betfair SP. Dublin: 2 won, 1 placed from 9 runs, A/E 1.35, -£5.56 at Betfair SP. Festival winners: Romeo Coolio (Dublin 2026, Betfair SP 1.51), Mighty Potter (Dublin 2023, Betfair SP 1.96), Samcro (Cheltenham 2020, Betfair SP 5.72).
  • Racing Post Chase (Grade 2) (Down Royal): 35% went on. Cheltenham: 0 won, 0 placed from 10 runs, A/E 0.00, -£10.00 at Betfair SP. Dublin: 0 won, 0 placed from 7 runs, A/E 0.00, -£7.00 at Betfair SP. No festival winner since 2018.
  • Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase (Listed) (Carlisle): 30% went on. Cheltenham: 1 won, 3 placed from 12 runs, A/E 1.21, -£4.03 at Betfair SP. Dublin: no runs. Festival winners: Corach Rambler (Cheltenham 2023, Betfair SP 8.11).

Last weekend on the clock

The big British meetings timed our way: every winner on the card against the feature race winner of the same type that day, over the same ground. First the last third of the shorter race, then the ground both races covered (less the shorter race's first furlong, a standing start). Same course, same day, same going, so the comparison is fair as far as the clock goes. It does not account for weight, and a quick finish after a slow early pace flatters.

On the clock

On the clock

On the clock

On the clock

Wetherby, Friday 30 October

  • Florida Dreams (bet365 'Chasing Excellence' Beginners' Chase, 2m3f) ran the last 6 furlongs 0.76 seconds quicker than Crebilly in the Bet Boost At bet365 Crossley Handicap Chase (2m3f), and the last 18 furlongs 7.76 seconds slower.
  • Nate Of Spades (Best Odds Guaranteed At bet365 Maiden Hurdle, 2m4f) ran the last 5 furlongs 0.22 seconds quicker than Charles Darnay in the Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (2m), and the last 15 furlongs 5.39 seconds slower.
  • Washington (bet365 Handicap Hurdle, 2m4f) ran the last 5 furlongs 1.19 seconds slower than Charles Darnay in the Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (2m), and the last 15 furlongs 2.13 seconds slower.

Quickest of anyone over the last 6 furlongs in the chases: Florida Dreams (1st in the bet365 'Chasing Excellence' Beginners' Chase).

Quickest of anyone over the last 5 furlongs in the hurdles: Nate Of Spades (1st in the Best Odds Guaranteed At bet365 Maiden Hurdle).

Ascot, Saturday 31 October

  • Media Mogul (Grundon Novices' Handicap Hurdle, 2m3f) ran the last 5 furlongs 0.14 seconds quicker than Trustintimes in the Lavazza Handicap Hurdle (2m), and the last 15 furlongs 5.65 seconds slower.
  • Babs (1st Class Logistics Novices' Hurdle, 2m) ran the last 5 furlongs 1.84 seconds quicker than Trustintimes in the Lavazza Handicap Hurdle (2m), and the last 15 furlongs 3.94 seconds slower.

Quickest of anyone over the last 5 furlongs in the hurdles: Babs (1st in the 1st Class Logistics Novices' Hurdle).

Wetherby, Saturday 31 October

  • Sledgehammer (bet365 Handicap Chase, 3m) ran the last 8 furlongs 0.22 seconds slower than Pic D'Orhy in the bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (3m), and the last 23 furlongs 23.01 seconds slower.

Quickest of anyone over the last 8 furlongs in the chases: Pic D'Orhy (1st in the bet365 Charlie Hall Chase).

Bet Boost At bet365 Crossley Handicap Chase: Breaking Cover finished 4th but was 2nd quickest over the last 6 furlongs.

Sodexo Live! Regal Encore Handicap Chase: Queensbury Boy finished 4th but was 2nd quickest over the last 8 furlongs.

Sectionals were not in yet for Carlisle on Sunday.

Build it yourself

Build this in the System Builder

Every table here is a breakdown in the System Builder: add Course, Month and Race Type, open the Breakdowns tab, and read A/E at Betfair SP beside the strike rate. On the day, Hot & Cold Trainers and Market Movers cover every yard and price at the meeting.

How we measured it

Every runner in a chase, hurdle or bumper at each course in the meeting's month, 2018 to last season, non-runners left out. A/E compares the winners with the sum of the horses' chances at Betfair Starting Price. Profit and loss is a £1 level stake at Betfair SP with 2% commission taken from winnings. "In profit" counts the years in which that split made a profit. The Dublin Racing Festival is every Leopardstown jumps fixture in February and the Cheltenham Festival every Cheltenham jumps fixture in March; a run counts towards the festivals of the same season.

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