Weekend jumps, 17 October: Limerick, what the price knew and the road to the festivals

by Simon Walton

Limerick (Saturday 17 to Sunday 18 October): this weekend's big jumps meeting. For each we went through every jumps runner at the course in the same month since 2018 and asked one question: did they win more often than their Betfair price said they would? That is A/E: actual winners divided by the winners the Betfair prices expected, where 1.00 means the market had them exactly right. Then we followed them on to the two festivals that matter, the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown in February and the Cheltenham Festival in March.

Limerick, Saturday 17 to Sunday 18 October

8 Octobers, 81 races, 882 runners. Horses back from a summer break (181+ days) have the best strike rate of the days-off bands, and beat the price (A/E 1.28): 15 winners from 117 runners (12.8%), A/E 1.28, minus £14 at Betfair SP, in profit in 4 of 8 Octobers. The split furthest from its price is horses back from a summer break: 15 from 117, A/E 1.28. Most winners: W P Mullins among the trainers (10 from 30, A/E 1.29) and Paul Townend among the riders (7 from 17, A/E 1.68).

The road to the festivals

Of every horse that ran at Limerick in this month since 2018, 11.3% ran at the Dublin Racing Festival or the Cheltenham Festival later that season (Dublin 56, Cheltenham 57). They won 4 festival races, an A/E of 0.84 at Betfair SP. Each horse counts once a season, by its last run here before the festivals.

• Talk The Talk: 1st in the Limerick Show Maiden Hurdle at Limerick (2025), then won the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) at the Dublin Racing Festival (2026) (Betfair SP 4.11).
• A Wave Of The Sea: 2nd in the JT McNamara Ladbrokes Munster National Handicap Chase at Limerick (2021), then won the Paddy Power 'I'm Never Going Back To The Office' Handicap Chase (0-150) (Grade 2) at the Dublin Racing Festival (2022) (Betfair SP 5.72).
• Milan Native: 4th in the Ladbrokes Where The Nation Plays Novice Hurdle (Listed) at Limerick (2019), then won the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival (2020) (Betfair SP 11.50).
• Black Tears: did not finish in the PricewaterhouseCoopers Irish EBF Cailin Alainn Mares Hurdle (Listed) at Limerick (2019), then won the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle (Grade 2) at the Dublin Racing Festival (2020) (Betfair SP 23.25).

The 2026-27 festival dossier

Not every race leads to the festivals. The dossier takes only the feeder races: the British and Irish jumps races whose past runnings sent 30% or more of their runners on to the Dublin Racing Festival or Cheltenham that season. Handicaps and maidens almost never do, so they stay out. Every Monday the first three in each of last weekend's feeder races go in. In February and March we check which of them made Dublin and Cheltenham, and how they ran there. This week: 0 horses, 6 in all.

Last weekend on the clock

The big British meetings timed our way: every winner on the card against the feature race winner of the same type that day, over the same ground. First the last third of the shorter race, then the ground both races covered (less the shorter race's first furlong, a standing start). Same course, same day, same going, so the comparison is fair as far as the clock goes. It does not account for weight, and a quick finish after a slow early pace flatters.

Chepstow, Friday 9 October

• Cooltobecareless (Wasdell Group Novices' Hurdle (Div 1), 2m) ran the last 5 furlongs 4.08 seconds quicker than West Hill Verde in the DragonBet Persian War Novices' Hurdle (2m3f), and the last 15 furlongs 2.40 seconds quicker.
• Saint Jeannais (Wasdell Group Novices' Hurdle (Div 2), 2m) ran the last 5 furlongs 2.57 seconds quicker than West Hill Verde in the DragonBet Persian War Novices' Hurdle (2m3f), and the last 15 furlongs 3.43 seconds quicker.
• Pioneer Pete (DragonBet 'Welsh Champion' Hurdle (Limited Handicap), 2m) ran the last 5 furlongs 2.85 seconds quicker than West Hill Verde in the DragonBet Persian War Novices' Hurdle (2m3f), and the last 15 furlongs 5.43 seconds quicker.
• Knight Templar (DragonBet Daily Dragonboosts Handicap Hurdle, 2m) ran the last 5 furlongs 2.03 seconds slower than West Hill Verde in the DragonBet Persian War Novices' Hurdle (2m3f), and the last 15 furlongs 2.23 seconds slower.
• Codetalker (LSL Racing Handicap Hurdle, 2m3f) ran the last 5 furlongs 1.26 seconds slower than West Hill Verde in the DragonBet Persian War Novices' Hurdle (2m3f), and the last 15 furlongs 8.36 seconds slower.
• Reel Orange (Alan Bushell Racing Remembers Alan Davies Mares' Handicap Hurdle, 2m) ran the last 5 furlongs 2.27 seconds slower than West Hill Verde in the DragonBet Persian War Novices' Hurdle (2m3f), and the last 15 furlongs 9.25 seconds slower.

Quickest of anyone over the last 5 furlongs in the hurdles: Cooltobecareless (1st in the Wasdell Group Novices' Hurdle (Div 1)).

Chepstow, Saturday 10 October

• Whistling Dave (DragonBet Best Odds Guaranteed Juvenile Hurdle, 2m) ran the last 5 furlongs 1.74 seconds slower than Daylatedollarshort in the Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (2m3f), and the last 15 furlongs 2.35 seconds slower.
• Treasure Planet (Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow 'Four Years Old' Hurdle (Limited Handicap), 2m) ran the last 5 furlongs 0.84 seconds slower than Daylatedollarshort in the Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (2m3f), and the last 15 furlongs 3.53 seconds quicker.
• Hitintheheadlines (DragonBet Backing Welsh Racing Maiden Hurdle, 2m3f) ran the last 5 furlongs 0.47 seconds quicker than Daylatedollarshort in the Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (2m3f), and the last 15 furlongs 4.00 seconds slower.
• Onefournine (McCarthy Construction Mares' Handicap Hurdle, 2m3f) ran the last 5 furlongs 1.28 seconds slower than Daylatedollarshort in the Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (2m3f), and the last 15 furlongs 4.33 seconds slower.

Quickest of anyone over the last 5 furlongs in the hurdles: Hitintheheadlines (1st in the DragonBet Backing Welsh Racing Maiden Hurdle).

Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle: Washington finished 7th but was 5th quickest over the last 6 furlongs.

Build it yourself

Every table here is a breakdown in the System Builder: add Course, Month and Race Type, open the Breakdowns tab, and read A/E at Betfair SP beside the strike rate. On the day, Hot & Cold Trainers and Market Movers cover every yard and price at the meeting.

How we measured it

Every runner in a chase, hurdle or bumper at each course in the meeting's month, 2018 to last season, non-runners left out. A/E compares the winners with the sum of the horses' chances at Betfair Starting Price. Profit and loss is a £1 level stake at Betfair SP with 2% commission taken from winnings. "In profit" counts the years in which that split made a profit. The Dublin Racing Festival is every Leopardstown jumps fixture in February and the Cheltenham Festival every Cheltenham jumps fixture in March; a run counts towards the festivals of the same season. A split above par is a question to ask, not a bet to strike.

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