Sire forensics: which jumps sires beat the Betfair price in 2025/26?

by Simon Walton

Twenty sires were behind 33% of every jumps winner in Britain and Ireland last season. We put every one of their 13,581 runners through the same test as our jockey and trainer forensics: what did the Betfair price expect, and what did the progeny deliver?

The short version

The champion sire came in under par. Walk In The Park had the most winners by a distance, 182, against the 211 the Betfair prices expected: an A/E of 0.86. A/E is actual winners divided by the winners the Betfair prices said should win; 1.00 means the market had them exactly right.
12 of the 20 beat the price, led by Shirocco (1.18), Malinas (1.16) and Getaway (1.15, from 163 winners).
The long shots were where the money went. Runners at 10/1 or bigger ran at 0.91 and returned minus 17.8%.
One result can still make a sire's season. Doctor Dino and Ocovango both show a profit, and each owes it to one winner at more than 200/1.

The league table

League table of the 20 leading jumps sires of 2025/26 by winners, with runners, strike rate, A/E at Betfair SP and profit or loss

Walk In The Park's 182 winners came at 11.2%, and the market expected more: those runners are backed harder than they run. Getaway, with 163 winners, is the clearest case the other way.

Which sires beat the price

Bar chart of A/E at Betfair SP for the 20 sires

12 finished above par, 1 level with it and 7 below. A season is a small sample, so read a figure like Shirocco's 1.18 as a reason to look closer, not proof of an edge.

Same sire, different ground

Each sire's A/E on better ground against soft or heavy ground

Jukebox Jury (0.88 to 1.43) and Ocovango (0.94 to 1.24) found more on soft or heavy. Order Of St George (1.16 to 0.68) and Diamond Boy (1.19 to 0.74) went the other way. Better ground means Good to Soft or faster.

Fences or hurdles?

Each sire's A/E over fences against over hurdles

Shirocco's runners beat the price over fences (1.39). Blue Bresil's (1.14 over hurdles, 0.68 over fences) and Mount Nelson's (1.14 against 0.76) did their best work over hurdles.

Where the price was wrong

All 20 sires’ runners grouped by Betfair price

Shorter than 2/1, the progeny won 49.2% of the time against the 47.8% the prices said. At 10/1 and bigger, 7,352 runners won 3.3% against 3.7% expected, and lost 17.8% of stakes.

One horse can make a season

Each sire’s season profit or loss at Betfair SP, the biggest winner, and the profit or loss without it

Doctor Dino is £196 on the season thanks to Sept Etoiles (242/1); without it, minus £42. Ocovango is £163, and Whatyouwant (241/1) is the difference: minus £73 without it. Read A/E first and profit last.

Build these tables yourself

Every table here comes from the same data our members use in the System Builder. Set the dates, add Race Type (Chase, Hurdle, NHF), then on the Grid tab put Sire down the side and Going across the top, and pick A/E at Betfair SP. Swap Going for Race Type and you have the fences and hurdles table. It works for any season back to 2018.

A sire above par last season is a question to ask this season, not a bet to strike.

How we measured it

Every runner in a chase, hurdle or National Hunt flat race in Britain and Ireland between 27 April 2025 and 25 April 2026, non-runners left out. The 20 sires are everyone with 58 or more winners. A/E compares the winners with the sum of the horses' chances at Betfair Starting Price. Profit and loss is a £1 level stake on every runner at Betfair SP, with 2% commission taken from winnings. Ground uses the official going on the day.

18+. Please gamble responsibly: BeGambleAware.org