Owner forensics: which jumps owners beat the Betfair price?

by Simon Walton

Twenty owners won 10% of every jumps race in Britain and Ireland over the last three jumps seasons. We put all 8,257 of their runners through the same test as our jockey and trainer forensics: what did the Betfair price expect, and what did the horses deliver?

The short version

14 of the 20 beat the price, led by Brocade Racing (1.37), Mr P Davies (1.28) and James & Jean Potter (1.26). A/E is actual winners divided by the winners the Betfair prices said should win; 1.00 means the market had them exactly right.
The biggest owner of all still came out above par. JP McManus had 443 winners from 2,966 runners against the 429 the prices expected: 1.03.
Some colours come alive on soft ground: James & Jean Potter's ran at 1.89 on soft or heavy, against 0.85 on better ground.
One horse. Simon Munir and Isaac Souede's profit of £139 comes down to Green Hope, at 229/1.

Three seasons, not one: a single season leaves the 20th owner on just 10 winners. The feed also spells some owners more than one way ("Mr John P McManus" and "John P McManus"); we have counted each owner once.

The league table

League table of the 20 leading jumps owners over three seasons by winners

Which owners beat the price

Bar chart of A/E at Betfair SP for the 20 owners

14 finished above par, 1 level with it and 5 below. Even over three seasons some of these samples are small, so read a figure like Brocade Racing's 1.37 as a reason to look closer, not proof of an edge.

Same colours, different ground

Each owner's A/E on better ground against soft or heavy ground

James & Jean Potter's and Mrs Ricci's horses (0.76 to 1.15) found more on soft. Mr Fyffe's (1.20 to 0.79) and Mr Twiston-Davies's (0.98 to 0.55) went the other way.

Fences or hurdles?

Each owner's A/E over fences against over hurdles

Walters Plant Hire's chasers ran at 1.78 and James & Jean Potter's at 1.87. Mrs Smith's (1.43) and John Patrick Ryan's (1.22) runners did better over hurdles.

By price

All 20 owners’ runners grouped by Betfair price

Shorter than 2/1 these horses won 51.4% of the time against the 50.5% the prices said. At 10/1 and bigger they ran at 0.91, returning minus 16.2%.

One horse can make a season

Each owner’s profit or loss at Betfair SP, the biggest winner, and the profit or loss without it

Green Hope won at 229/1 at Down Royal. Without that one result, Simon Munir and Isaac Souede's three seasons come to minus £85 rather than £139. Read A/E first and profit last.

Build these tables yourself

Every table here comes from the same data our members use in the System Builder. Set the dates, add Race Type (Chase, Hurdle, NHF), then on the Grid tab put Owner down the side and Going across the top, and pick A/E at Betfair SP. Swap Going for Race Type and you have the fences and hurdles table. It works for any season back to 2018.

An owner above par is a question to ask, not a bet to strike.

How we measured it

Every runner in a chase, hurdle or National Hunt flat race in Britain and Ireland between 30 April 2023 and 25 April 2026, non-runners left out. The 20 owners are everyone with 27 or more winners. A/E compares the winners with the sum of the horses' chances at Betfair Starting Price. Profit and loss is a £1 level stake on every runner at Betfair SP, with 2% commission taken from winnings. Ground uses the official going on the day. Owners spelled more than one way in the feed are counted once.

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