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December 3rd, 2019

The Cheltenham Trail TASTER 2019/20 - Just £19.99

 

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What a start we have had, here are some notes snippets from the last few weeks

NOTES FOR SANDOWN ON FRIDAY 6th DECEMBER 2019

A FEW NOTES TO COMPARE WITH YOUR OWN THOUGHTS

A very quiet day for me with just the one bet in the finale at Sandown. Plenty more to look forward to over the weekend plus next week at Cheltenham.

3.30

There looks to be a good chance that Guardia Top will get away out in front. I expect her to be ridden very positively. Hopefully her rider will be able to get a breather into her as she will be at risk of not lasting home if she kicks well before the second last hurdle. The more it rains the more likely she will trade short in running. My hope is to benefit whether or not she gets caught. She is currently trading at 9/2 with Betfred and is a similar price to small money on the exchanges. I have backed her at 9/2 and 4/1 and may back her five minutes before the off again.

GUARDIA TOP wins @ 9/2

 

SATURDAY 30th NOVEMBER 2019

I have been looking forward to backing Captain Chaos for the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle today. However hie is quite a difficult ride and the fact that Harry Skelton is at Newbury is enough to put me off betting. Maybe he is another to add to the list for small each way multiple bets. Moreover I wonder how terrible the ground will be by the time he runs? My hope is for him to jump well enough before dropping out and, as a consequence, trade bigger at Wetherby over Xmas. If he wins today I will be cheering him home.

Cornerstone Lad has a very good chance of running better than his big price would suggest in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle. How, or indeed whether or not to play him is the difficult part of the equation. SFC for the favourite to beat him? Each Way? Buy him at 9 on the spreads? I have gone down the SFC route and backed all four rivals to beat him to return a similar stake. He will be around 40+ on the exchanges closer to the off so it would be daft to back the forecasts and watch something go wrong with the favourite. Hopefully that will not happen but the security of that tiny wager is a no brainer at such massive odds. Cornerstone Lad will love the ground and the second favourite Silver Streak has struggled on soft more than once. I appreciate he finished third in the Champion Hurdle on soft but that was the day all three favourites failed to run a race. He has a better chance than Cornerstone Lad but not by the margin the betting would suggest. This is a very speculative wager to small stakes.

CORNERSTONE LAD wins at 42.0 on Betfair, we had all bases covered with the SFC's.

 

Listed Handicap Hurdle

 Another tough race but one I thought worth betting on to small stakes.

 My shortlist for this contest is:

 Crooks Peak, Epatante, Elvis Mail and Antunes in that order.

The last named won well at Wetherby but this is tougher and he has been penalised for that win on a northern track. The main concern with Elvis Mail is the jockey and especially the inexperience of the jockey at Newbury. Epatante has been very buzzy in the past and will need a fast pace to give her the best chance of settling. The fact that this is her seasonal debut adds to the possibility of her racing too keenly. I may consider backing her if she settles out the back after two or three hurdles. Alternatively I may play her and Crooks Peak as a duo in a couple of small each way multiple bets.

 I have had a small win bet on Crooks Peak and have also backed him to finish in the first four at better than even money. I feel fairly confident that his jockey kept him to the worst ground last time out at Chepstow. He is best when fresh and should run well round the same course and distance he won at in March.

EPANTANTE 1st and CROOKS PEAK 4th

There are far too many with chances for me here; however, my long short list would include Bennys KingWestend Story and Molineaux

BENNYS KING 1st @ 10/1

 

FRIDAY 29th NOVEMBER 2019

Katahdin was particularly clueless on his hurdles debut here in early November. He was backed down to 11/8 favourite that day and is around the 14/1 mark today and will presumably trade closer to 20/1 on the exchanges. Trincomalee was not given the best of rides last time out and I would see the jockey switch as a positive move. He is forgotten about in the market due to his relatively unfashionable connections

TRINCOMALEE 3rd @ 16/1 and KATAHDIN was 5th @ 14/1

 

12:45

Ladbrokes Chase

I thought it was interesting to read Paul Nicholls suggesting that this soft ground will be in favour of Southfield Stone. I think we were hearing a very different story last season; especially when he won at Kempton in February. His record is not obviously one of a horse preferring cut in the ground; if his trainer is right, however, he is likely to run extremely well here.

I liked Sully D’Oc AA’s debut run and think he might be well in.

SULLY D'Oc AA was 2nd @ 7/1 bumping into a potentially good one in the winner FANION D'ESTRUVAL

 

1.20

It is difficult to compare the form of the main contenders; however I really enjoyed Sevarano’s performance at Chepstow. He will handle the ground and is an each way price in a race with possibly less depth than the opener. I have had a small each way bet on him at 15/2.

SEVARANO wins @ 13/2

 

SATURDAY 23rd NOVEMBER 2019

12.20

NOVICES’ HURDLE

If  Valtor runs to his form he should win easily. If for any reason he doesn’t then Redford Road has a very good chance of capitalising. I appreciate I am not saying anything that the market is not telling us; therefore no bet for me other than a tiny win treble on Valtar with the favourites in the 12.05 and the 1.15 at Haydock.

The first two in the treble won so we layed off in the final leg to secure a nice profit.

12.55

NOVICES’ LTD HANDICAP CHASE

I have had a small each way bet on Pym at 9/2. 

PYM wins @ 11/4

 

 

OTHER NOTABLE WINNERS

MAISON D'OR @ 8/1
ELLEON @ 9/1


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