Trading Pointers: 14:35 Ayr

January 19th, 2016

There are many ways the Proform Free Race Guide can be used for trading, lets run through a few from today’s (19th Jan 2016) free guide the 14:35 at Ayr.

The race is over 2m 4f 110y Novice Chase on Heavy ground.

Pace

The first angle for me when I look to trade a race would be where the likely pace will come from and we provide a pace map prediction based on previous early pace form of each horse:

The pace map is ordered by the most likely pace setter, in this case the Donald McCain trained Hellorboston, closely followed by The Orange Rogue and Kilbree Chief.

Because the first three’s pace figures are close together value wise (10,8 and 8) it isn’t clear cut which one will lead so I would be waiting until they begin to circle to catch a move on one of these three.

There are many occasions where the pace figures point to a clear cut leader and a pre-race trade can be child’s play when you have a strong prediction because the market will generally shorten on what could be an uncontested leader from around 10 minutes before the race..

 

Ratings

Another strong pointer on our guides are the ratings and forecasts in the final columns on the main card, see here in mobile format

We order our race card by our ratings and forecast with the highest rated first and the first three marked in gold, silver and bronze.

The top 3 predict the winner in 60% of all races so they are always a good starting point for any race.

 

Trainer Form

A Trainer’s current form can also be a strong indicator of not only the stable well-being but also often a market move and we show this on our 14+ Day Trainer tab, seen below.

Donald McCain has had a torrid time of it lately but we can see from the last 14 days that his stable form is on the up with a 20% strike rate in the last 14 days compared to have that in the previous 28 and 56 day periods.

Hellorboston is the stables runner and we have already seen he is the likely leader and I am sure you will have noticed Hellorboston is also 2nd rated on our ratings with a forecast price of 11/2 (6.5).

He’s currently 11.5 on Betdaq and Betfair and could easily be single figures before the off based on his pace profile and trainer form and if he jumps off in front will be trading much lower very quickly!

 

Other Angles 

There are many other ways to find a trade using our guides. 

  • Our positive and negative stats show you how horses have traded on the exchanges when there is enough data along with a multitude of other equally important stats that can be used for backing and laying.
  • Our going tables help you determine the optimum conditions for each horse which could lead to a trade of a horse who is short and might not act on the ground.
  • The sire stats we produce come into their own when there is limited form on runners or in maidens, national hunt flat races or just to determine if a horses sire acted on todays ground, course or distance.
  • The list of angles and possibilities are endless using our guides.

When not give our free guide a whirl?

You can find them on this link. We provide one free guide each day and all you have to do is register a free account to gain access. (No card details required).