Wake Me Up When September EndsSeptember 3rd, 2018
We are into the closing crescendo of the flat season and towards the start of the jumps season proper. There are some trainers who excel in the early autumn but here we will look at stables who for one reason or another do not visit the winners’ enclosure as often in September as they do at other times in the calendar. It is no reflection ofs their ability as trainers as there are a number of excellent names who will feature in the list below. Nevertheless it provides us punters with useful angles.
All of the data reflected is from 2013 onwards.
The overall profile of the stable is that it usually keeps a healthy strike rate, particularly at the northern tracks. Looking at chase events only by month, the end of season in April and the start of the new season proper in September appears to be leaner spells for a stable used to a steady flow of winners.
Here is the month of September by race type and you can observe that runners over the larger obstacles can be taken on during this period.
With just the 2/41 record for the stable since 2013 and 2/70 in 10 years since 2008, one of those victories by an odds on shot and 10 of the sample were sent off favourite, its one to perhaps Lay in the coming weeks.
One of the biggest stables in the land having sent out well over 2000 runners in the past 5 years, generally operates at a steady 10-15% strike rate, that falls to the 5% range for the ninth month of the year.
Two-year olds are not down Vs expected wins to the same degree compared with 3yo plus where there is a large drop off in winners.
Breaking it down for 3yo+ runners then by race type and we see that Michael has failed to ring a Bell on the All Weather in September since 2012:
Given that the stables horses are usually fancied (of the 155 sample, 61 came from the top 3 in the market) given the strong record of the Bell stable for the rest of the year it is a potentially useful angle to find value elsewhere this month.
A stable which likes to keep busy they usually turn out an average of over 40 runners a month in the turf season. But looking at the September record the market has expected far more winners than has been the case in the recent seasons.
The AW runners appear to keep their form but on the turf the stable has a quieter spell than their normal 8-10% win rate. Many may be impractical to lay with the average Betfair SP of 20.77. Taking those sent off at less than 10 on the exchange and the record is 7/84 and half the amount of expected winners hitting the target.
Another yard with a high volume of runners. Usually operating at a consistent 10-15% win rate. Looking at the runners it fields in September those in the 2yo and 3yo category perform below expectation:
For those younger horses (2/3yo) the drop off is more pronounced in handicap races than non-handicaps, which come in just below expected.
The stable did have a winner in a Handicap at Beverley on Saturday so as with this and all the trends above and in general you just do not know if and when there may be a sea change.
But above are four trends from larger stables that should help to inform your punting this September and provide ideas for systems.
by Conrad Clancy (A Proform Member)